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IRI Institute for Climate and Society Quick Look

A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)

El Niño conditions are strengthening across the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region showing a steady upward trend. The observed SST anomaly averaged +0.98 °C during April–June 2026 and increased to +1.55 °C in June 2026. The latest weekly Niño 3.4 index, centered on July 15, 2026, climbed further to +2.1 °C. Together, these Pacific Ocean SST observations indicate that El Niño conditions continue to intensify, suggesting the event is evolving toward a very strong El Niño.

Figures 1 ((the official CPC ENSO probability forecast) and 3 (the objective model-based CCSR/IRI ENSO probability forecast) are often quite similar. However, occasionally they may differ noticeably. There can be several possible reasons for differences. One is the human forecasters, using their experience and judgment, may disagree to some degree with the models, which may have known biases. Another reason is the models are not run at the same time that the forecasters make their assessment, so that the starting ENSO conditions may be slightly different between the two times. The charts on this Quick Look page are updated at two different times of the month, typically about a week apart, with the CCSR/IRI forecast run later. Also note that the CPC forecast starts on the previous season while the CCSR/IRI forecast starts on the season.

Acid-resistant nanocage shows promise for targeted gastric cancer therapy

Researchers from the Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore (NUS Medicine), have developed a swallowable nanoscale delivery platform designed to transport therapeutic enzymes through the stomach’s acidic environment and activate a cancer-killing reaction at tumor sites. Early preclinical findings suggest that the approach may offer a new strategy for treating gastric cancer more precisely while reducing damage to healthy tissue.

The preclinical study, published in the Journal of Nanobiotechnology, was led by associate professor Chester Lee Drum, Department of Medicine and the Cardiovascular-Metabolic Disease Translational Research Program (TRP), NUS Medicine, together with co-first authors Dr. Muthu Kumaraswamy Shanmugam and Dr. Girish Vallerinteavide Mavelli, both senior research fellows at the Department of Medicine, NUS Medicine.

Astronomers Find Escaping Helium on Rocky World LHS 1140 b

By detecting helium escaping into space, astronomers have found the first direct evidence of an atmosphere on LHS 1,140 b, a rocky exoplanet located in its star’s habitable zone.

A collaborative team of researchers recently announced the discovery of an atmosphere on a rocky exoplanet orbiting in the habitable zone of its star. While this finding is intriguing for the search for life beyond Earth, the atmosphere is not only comprised of helium, but it was found to be escaping the exoplanet. The researchers discuss these findings in a recent study published in the journal Science and it holds the potential to help scientists better understand the formation and evolution of rocky exoplanets while narrowing the search for life beyond Earth.

For the study, the researchers analyzed data about LHS 1,140 b, which orbits a red dwarf star about 50 light-years from Earth and has a radius and mass about 1.7 and 5.6 of Earth, respectively, designating LHS 1,140 b as a super-Earth. While the researchers note this is the first time an atmosphere has been detected around a rocky exoplanet orbiting in the habitable zone of its star, LHS 1,140 b’s atmosphere is primarily comprised of helium and was also found to be escaping the exoplanet or being stripped away.

This is because red dwarf stars have been found to be significantly more active than Sun-like stars, meaning its intense radiation is potentially stripping LHS 1,140 b’s upper atmosphere where the helium is found. Despite this, the team noted other types of gases could be present in the lower altitudes of the atmosphere.

Gemini Architecture Written Directly Into Silicon: Technical Details of Google’s New AI Inference Chip “Frozen v2” Revealed, Processing per Unit of Power Consumption Increased by up to 10 Times

TradingKey — According to a report from The Information citing two people familiar with the matter, Google (GOOGL) is developing a new server chip capable of directly embedding the underlying architecture of the Gemini large model into the chip hardware to significantly enhance the operational efficiency of AI services for users. Internally codenamed “Frozen v2,” this AI inference chip directly addresses Google’s current severe shortage of AI computing power. Sources revealed that the computing capacity gap has triggered internal resource conflicts and even forced Google Cloud to reject numerous orders from external customers. The research and development team estimates that once the chip is officially deployed, the number of tokens processed per unit of power consumption will be 6 to 10 times that of the latest generation of Google’s existing self-developed AI chips.

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Giving bees a probiotic diet could help protect them from extreme temperatures

Honeybees do not like cold weather. When temperatures dip, they can become sluggish and unable to fly. But no matter the conditions in the outside world, they try to keep their hives close to a comfortable 34°C–36°C (93°F–97°F). However, extreme weather, both hot and cold, can overwhelm this internal temperature control and ultimately cut their lives short.

That may not be a problem, though, if they are given a dietary boost. Researchers led by Dr. Najmeh Sahebzadeh at the University of Zabol in southeastern Iran wondered whether feeding them a diet containing a probiotic (live beneficial bacteria) and a prebiotic (fiber that feeds those bacteria) could enhance their survival.

The results, published in a paper in the journal PLOS One, suggest that it could.

Disruptive technologies are expected to transform the manufacturing of advanced semiconductors over the next five years

Gelonghui, July 13 | According to Science and Technology Daily, the surge in AI technology has driven strong demand for advanced chips, yet global chip supply remains constrained by the technology and production capacity of only a few companies. In a recent report, Forbes.com noted that as emerging technologies continue to rise, the global approach to manufacturing cutting-edge chips is expected to undergo a major transformation by 2030. Although extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography is currently dominant, it is not the only method for ‘drawing’ microscopic transistors onto silicon wafers. A new generation of forward-looking lithography technologies is poised to emerge, potentially replacing EUV lithography and reshaping how advanced chips are manufactured. Atomic lithography abandons ‘light’ and instead

The ocean current that warms Europe may be more resilient than feared

Climate models have long warned that global warming could weaken “deep-water formation”—the density-driven sinking that is the engine of the AMOC. The logic is straightforward: As Greenland’s ice sheets melt and sea ice formation declines, North Atlantic waters will freshen. Combined with warmer sea temperatures, the freshening makes surface waters more buoyant. The AMOC was thought to have shut down abruptly during past climate warmings, and a handful of researchers now argue such a tipping point could occur this century. A sputtering AMOC could trigger a sharp cooldown in northwestern Europe, rising seas along the U.S. east coast, and shifts in tropical rainfall. “It is a risk that would really have severe impacts,” says Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate scientist at Potsdam University and a prominent voice warning of the threat.

Yet for all the alarming headlines, most climate researchers think the AMOC is more resilient than these worst case scenarios make it seem. Emerging evidence suggests the AMOC may not have actually collapsed in the warm climates following ice ages. More detailed climate models suggest it could weaken but not collapse in the current surge of warming. And studies of the AMOC’s present behavior do not yet show any clear signs of trouble. They’re also exposing new facets of the circulation that could buffer any eventual weakening.

“The paradigm has been, if we warm and freshen these areas, we’ll get less dense water and AMOC will slow down,” says Susan Lozier, an oceanographer at the Georgia Institute of Technology. “That paradigm isn’t holding up.”

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