Ray, you’ve made two predictions that I think are important. The first one, as you said, was the one you announced back in 1989: that we would reach human-level AI by 2029. And as you said, people laughed at it.
But there’s another prediction you’ve made: that we will reach the Singularity by 2045. There’s a lot of confusion here. In other words, if we reach human-level AI by 2029 and it then grows exponentially, why do we have to wait until 2045 for the Singularity? Could you explain the difference between these two?
It’s because that’s the point at which our intelligence will become a thousand times greater. One of the ways my view differs from others is that I don’t see it as us having our own intelligence—that is, biological intelligence—while AI exists somewhere else, and we interact with it by comparing human intelligence to AI.
Founder of XPRIZE and pioneer in exponential technologies. Building a world of Abundance through innovation, longevity, and breakthrough ventures.




