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Can Future Epidemics Be Predicted?

Like weather forecasting, disease forecasting needs to be statistical.

While we cannot predict in advance exactly how many hurricanes will occur this year or how bad they will be, we know with great confidence that climate change is a risk factor increasing the frequency and severity of hurricanes. Our knowledge of this and all the other risk factors for hurricanes allows us to make a statistical prediction for the coming season.

Similarly, we have known for decades that ther… See more.


I’ve written before about the need for infectious disease intelligence and whether or not we can insure against damages from future outbreaks. Both ideas assume that epidemics can, to some extent, be predicted. But can they?

The lack of control and idiosyncrasies of the current Covid-19 pandemic (like multiple “waves” of transmission), might cause some to wonder if predicting epidemics is a lost cause. A comparison of the performance of 27 individual models made by many of the best academic scientists showed high high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Only just more than half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than simply assuming the number of cases per week will stay the same for the next 4 weeks.

Tesla order could double to 200,000 Model 3s to satisfy deal with Uber, says Hertz CEO

Hertz CEO Mark Fields revealed that its deal to supply Tesla vehicles to Uber includes an option for 100,000 more Tesla Model 3s, which would double its total order to 200,000 vehicles.

Earlier this week, Hertz announced that it ordered 100,000 Model 3 vehicles from Tesla as part of a new plan to electrify its fleet.

In the last few days, we have been learning more about this deal.

A New Commercial Hydrogen-Electric Plane Will Boast a 500 Mile Range

The emission-free aircraft will carry up to 76 passengers.

A new aviation partnership could see commercial hydrogen-electric airliners take to the skies. The parent company of Alaska Airlines, Alaska Air Group, is partnering with zero-emission aviation firm ZeroAvia to develop a hydrogen-electric powertrain for a 76-seater passenger airliner, a press statement reveals.

The two companies say that their ZA2000 hydrogen-electric powertrain will have a power output of 2,000–5,000 kW and a range of 500 miles (804 km). The powertrain will initially be fitted into a full-size De Havilland Q400 aircraft. Alaska Air also announced it has invested in ZeroAvia with a view to helping it meet its goal of net-zero emissions by 2040.

Australian Company Works to Make Energy From Nuclear Fusion — But Without the Fiery Ball of Plasma

PERHAPS THE MOST PROMISING ROUTE TO FUSION uses Boron instead, reqiring higher temperatures atainable by chirped lasers—using a widely available fuel, and an output which can be turned directly into energy without the need for steam turbines, etc.

“when it’s finally deployed on electric grids, humanity can leave uranium, coal, oil, and gas in the ground. We won’t need to drill for geothermal energy, or line our hills with unrecyclable wind turbines. It won’t matter if the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing…”


Using super powerful lasers to create clean, emission-less energy, HB11 Energy is expanding options for commercial nuclear fusion.

FlexSail: Solar Sails and Tech Revolutions — Kent Nebergall — 2021 Mars Society Virtual Convention

Track code: TD-3

Abstract:
Solar Sails are at the same stage of engineering development as electric motors were in the 1830’s. Each attribute of solar flux has been examined in isolation, such as photon, proton, plasma, and electrodynamic systems. This talk recommends designing a simple baseline system that converges multiple propulsion methods into optimized systems, as is currently done with electric motors. Many convergences can come from this solution space. Once a baseline design is created, AI genetic algorithms can “flight test” and refine the designs in simulation to adjust proportions and geometry. Once a base design is refined, a second AI evolution pass would design fleet systems that flock like birds to optimize performance. These could fly as a protective shield around Mars crewed fleets, provide space based solar power, deploy rapid reaction probes for interstellar comets, and be used in NEO asteroid mining. In the long term, fleets of solar energy management vehicles can provide orbital Carrigan event protection and Martian solar wind protection for terraforming. This talk is also a case study in how technology revolutions happen, and how to accelerate the creation and democratization of technical solutions.

From the 24th Annual International Mars Society Convention, held as a Virtual Convention worldwide on the Internet from October 14–17, 2021. The four-day International Mars Society Convention, held every year since 1,998 brings together leading scientists, engineers, aerospace industry representatives, government policymakers and journalists to talk about the latest scientific discoveries, technological advances and political-economic developments that could help pave the way for a human mission to the planet Mars.

Conference Papers and some presentations will be available on www.MarsPapers.org.

For more information on the Mars Society, visit our website at www.MarsSociety.org.

#MarsSociety #MarsSocCon2021

China’s cell-based meat revolution on the cusp of becoming the next big tech boom

26 Oct 2021 — Public Chinese government records reviewed by the Good Food Institute (GFI) APAC indicate that significant funds are being allocated to help the nascent alternative protein sector optimize and scale up – as was previously done for the nation’s development of solar panels, lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles.

While Chinese funding for alternative protein remains a tiny proportion of what the nation is capable of, these moves by various government entities demonstrate the scope of interest among local officials, which could potentially position China at the forefront of the next big food tech boom.

“There is no pathway to achieve the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement without changing how we produce protein, but encouraging new evidence suggests that Chinese leaders understand the massive benefits of making meat from plants and growing it directly from cells,” stresses the GFI.

India’s New Hypercar Is the Fastest Electric Vehicle It’s Ever Built

Nd it’s also the lightest.

A Mumbai, India-based startup called Vazirani Automotive revealed images of its Ekonk electric hypercar, which was designed to be the “lightest EV ever,” a report from Motor1.com explains. The car, which looks like it’s out of the ‘Speed Racer’ movie, was designed with a special cooling system to keep it as light and fast as possible.

Though the Ekonk is still in the prototype phase, the Vazirani Automotive team says it aims to develop the fastest… See More.

Qubits for the future: YouTube documentary explores how quantum computing could promote sustainability

Laura Hiscott reviews Quantum Technology | Our Sustainable Future by The Quantum Daily.

How could quantum computing help us to fix climate change? This is the question at the heart of Quantum Technology | Our Sustainable Future, a half-hour-long documentary published on YouTube in July.

Made by “The Quantum Daily”, a resource for news and information on all things quantum, the documentary consists of interviews with people working in a host of organizations in the sector, from Oxford Instruments NanoScience to Google Quantum AI. The main idea is that, since quantum computers have the potential to be much more powerful than classical ones, they could speed up the discovery of solutions, such as molecules that would be very effective at carbon capture.

Why Rust Batteries May Be the Future of Energy — Iron Air Battery Technology

Go to http://brilliant.org/Undecided to sign up for free. And also, the first 200 people will get 20% off their annual premium membership. While renewable energy sources like solar and wind have now become cheaper than fossil fuels, developing long-term energy storage is key to overcome their intermittency. Lithium-ion batteries are the state-of-the-art battery technology but they can only cost-effectively provide energy for about 6 hours. So, what if we could extend the battery duration to 100 hours… out of thin air … and rust? Literally!

Watch Perovskite Solar Cells Could Be the Future of Energy: https://youtu.be/YWU89g7sj7s?list=PLnTSM-ORSgi7sp17ey2ydGRGBTFijdYCh.

Video script and citations:
https://undecidedmf.com/episodes/why-rust-batteries-may-be-t…technology.

Follow-up podcast:
Video version — https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4-aWB84Bupf5hxGqrwYqLA
Audio version — http://bit.ly/stilltbdfm.

👋 Support Undecided on Patreon!
https://www.patreon.com/mattferrell.

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