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Self-assembling printable robotic components http://www.kurzweilai.net/self-assembling-printable-robotic-components

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Raptor robot runs at 28.58 mph, faster than any human http://www.kurzweilai.net/kaist-raptor-robot-runs-at-28-…-any-human

Teleporting information achieved by TU Delft http://www.kurzweilai.net/teleporting-information-achieved-by-tu-delft

A wakeup call: what exactly should we do about near-Earth objects? http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-wakeup-call-what-exactly-should-…th-objects

Artificial Intelligence Is Now Telling Doctors How to Treat You http://www.wired.com/2014/06/ai-healthcare/?mbid=social_linkedin

Curved screens make our brains light up with pleasure http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22229714.900-curved-sc…41gjSgbErg

World’s First Fully Organic Flexible OLED Will Wrap Around Your Wrist http://gizmodo.com/worlds-first-fully-organic-flexible-oled-…1584772596

DARPA Using Oculus in Plan X Cyberwar http://news.filehippo.com/2014/05/darpa-using-oculus-in-plan-x-cyberwar/

4 DARPA Projects That Could Be Bigger Than the Internet http://www.nationaljournal.com/defense/4-darpa-projects-that…t-20140521

Top 10 FinTech Companies to Watch http://www.americanbanker.com/gallery/top-10-fintech-compani…#45;1.html

Tepid US recovery – it’s the middle class, stupid http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/753839f0-e75b-11e3-88be-00144f…z33YJBTTFP

What’s Still Needed to Make Google’s Autonomous Car Dream Come True? http://www.21stcentech.com/needed-googles-autonomous-car-dream-true/

The Truth About Building With Glass http://www.fastcodesign.com/3031286/on-the-willis-tower-the-…with-glass

What the future of work looks like http://fortune.com/2014/05/29/what-the-future-of-work-looks-like/

Wearable Computers Will Transform Language http://spectrum.ieee.org/consumer-electronics/portable-devic…m-language

Marc Andreessen on the Future of Technology and Automation, Robotics, and AI can Impact Government Service http://www.ctovision.com/2014/06/marc-andreessen-future-tech…-citizens/

Internet of Things – Smart Systems and Dumb Policy could be a Dangerous Combination in a Dynamic Global Arena http://www.c-pet.org/internet-of-things/

Planning Your Future Is Pointless. The How And Why Of Embracing Uncertainty http://www.fastcompany.com/3030866/hit-the-ground-running/pl…26481685=1

Teleporting people through space, as is done in Star Trek, is impossible by the laws of physics. Teleporting information is another matter, however, thanks to the extraordinary world of quantum mechanics. http://phys.org/wire-news/162888651/beam-me-up-data.html

Technology Trends and Predictions for the Near Future http://www.streetwisetech.com/technology-trends-predictions-…12660.html

Green tea could reduce pancreatic cancer risk: Study explains how http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/05/140530133214.htm

Early testers are building a range of prototypes from drones to immersive video games using Google’s 3-D mapping smartphone. http://www.linkedin.com/groups?mostRecent=&gid=145854&am…le-flipgrp

These phones will survive the apocalypse http://www.theverge.com/2014/5/30/5765818/these-phones-will-…apocalypse

Get ready for computers of the future http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/05/140529142030.htm

Microsoft’s Futuristic New Tool Translates Skype Calls in Real Time http://www.wired.com/2014/05/microsoft-skype-translate/

America’s Futuristic Factories http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/03/05/americas-futuristic-factories

The Past And Future Of Drones In The U.S. (Infographic) http://www.thesleuthjournal.com/past-future-drones-u-s-infographic/

2020 Vision: What Will the US Look Like 7 Years from Now? http://dashburst.com/infographic/2020-projections-united-states/

American President Announces Carbon Pollution Reduction Targets http://www.21stcentech.com/american-president-announces-carb…n-targets/

What the future of work looks like http://fortune.com/2014/05/29/what-the-future-of-work-looks-like/

The technological singularity requires the creation of an artificial superintelligence (ASI). But does that ASI need to be modelled on the human brain, or is it even necessary to be able to fully replicate the human brain and consciousness digitally in order to design an ASI ?

Animal brains and computers don’t work the same way. Brains are massively parallel three-dimensional networks, while computers still process information in a very linear fashion, although millions of times faster than brains. Microprocessors can perform amazing calculations, far exceeding the speed and efficiency of the human brain using completely different patterns to process information. The drawback is that traditional chips are not good at processing massively parallel data, solving complex problems, or recognizing patterns.

Newly developed neuromorphic chips are modelling the massively parallel way the brain processes information using, among others, neural networks. Neuromorphic computers should ideally use optical technology, which can potentially process trillions of simultaneous calculations, making it possible to simulate a whole human brain.

The Blue Brain Project and the Human Brain Project, funded by the European Union, the Swiss government and IBM, are two such attempts to build a full computer model of a functioning human brain using a biologically realistic model of neurons. The Human Brain Project aims to achieve a functional simulation of the human brain for 2016.

Neuromorphic chips make it possible for computers to process sensory data, detect and predict patterns, and learn from experience. This is a huge advance in artificial intelligence, a step closer to creating an artificial general intelligence (AGI), i.e. an AI that could successfully perform any intellectual task that a human being can.

Think of an AGI inside a humanoid robot, a machine that looks and behave like us, but with customizable skills and that can perform practically any task better than a real human. These robots could be self-aware and/or sentient, depending on how we choose to build them. Manufacturing robots wouldn’t need to be, but what about social robots living with us, taking care of the young, the sick or the elderly? Surely it would be nicer if they could converse with us as if they were conscious, sentient beings like us, a bit like the AI in Spike Jonze’s 2013 movie Her.

In a not too distant future, perhaps less than two decades, such robots could replace humans for practically any job, creating a society of abundance where humans can spend their time however they like. In this model, highly capable robots would run the economy for us. Food, energy and most consumer products would be free or very cheap, and people would receive a fixed monthly allowance from the government.

This all sounds very nice. But what about an AI that would be greatly surpass the brightest human minds ? An artificial superintelligence (ASI), or strong AI (SAI), with the ability to learn and improve on itself, and potentially becoming millions or billions of times more intelligent and capable than humans ? The creation of such an entity would theoretically lead to the mythical technological singularity.

Futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil believes that the singularity will happen some time around 2045. Among Kurzweil’s critics is Microsoft cofounder Paul Allen, who believes that the singularity is still a long way off. Allen argues that for a real singularity-level computer intelligence to be built, the scientific understanding of how the human brain works will need to accelerate exponentially (like digital technologies), and that the process of original scientific discovery just doesn’t behave that way. He calls this issue the complexity brake.

Without interfering in the argument between Paul Allen and Ray Kurzweil (who replied convincingly here), the question I want to discuss is whether it is absolutely necessary to fully understand and replicate the way the human brain works to create an ASI.

GREAT INTELLIGENCE DOESN’T HAVE TO BE MODELLED ON THE HUMAN BRAIN

It is a natural for us to think that humans are the culmination of intelligence, simply because it is the case in the biological world on Earth. But that doesn’t mean that our brain is perfect or that other forms of higher intelligence cannot exist if they aren’t based on the same model.

If extraterrestrial beings with a greater intelligence than ours exist, it is virtually unthinkable that their brains be shaped and function like ours. The process of evolution is so random and complex that even if life were to be created again on a planet identical to Earth, it wouldn’t unfold the same way as it did for us, and consequently the species wouldn’t be the same. What if the Permian-Triassic extinction, or any other mass extinction event hadn’t occured ? We wouldn’t be there. But that doesn’t mean that other intelligent animals wouldn’t have evolved instead of us. Perhaps there would have been octopus-like creatures more intelligent than humans with a completely different brain structure.

It’s pure human vanity and short-sightedness to think that everything good and intelligent has to be modelled on us. That is the kind of thinking that led to the development of religions with anthropomorphized gods. Humble or unpretentious religions like animism or Buddhism either have no human-like deity or no god at all. More arrogant or self-righteous religions, be them polytheistic or monotheistic, have typically imagined gods as superhumans. We don’t want to make the same mistake with artificial superintelligence. Greater than human intelligence does not have to be an inflated version of human intelligence, nor should it be based on our biological brains.

The human brain is the fortuitious result of four billion years of evolution. Or rather, it is one tiny branch in the grand tree of evolution. Birds have much smaller brains than mammals and are generally considered stupid animals compared to most mammals. Yet, crows have reasoning skills that can exceed that of a preschooler. They display conscious, purposeful behaviour, a combined with a sense of initiative, elaborate problem solving abilities of their own, and can even use tools. All this with a brain the size of a fava-bean. A 2004 study from the departments of animal behavior and experimental psychology at the University of Cambridge claimed that crows were as clever as the great apes.

Clearly there is no need to replicate the intricacies of a human cortex to achieve consciousness and initiative. Intelligence does not depend only on brain size, the number of neurons, or cortex complexity, but also the brain-to-body mass ratio. That is why cattle, who have brains as big as chimpanzees, are stupider than ravens or mice.

But what about computers ? Computers are pure “brains”. They don’t have bodies. And indeed as computers get faster and more efficient, their size tend to decrease, not increase. This is yet another example of why we shouldn’t compare biological brains and computers.

As Ray Kurzweil explains in his reply to Paul Allen, learning about how the human brains works only serve to provide “biologically inspired methods that can accelerate work in AI, much of which has progressed without significant insight as to how the brain performs similar functions. […] The way that these massively redundant structures in the brain differentiate is through learning and experience. The current state of the art in AI does, however, enable systems to also learn from their own experience.” He then adds that IBM’s Watson learned most of its knowledge by reading on its own.

In conclusion, there is no rational reason to believe that an artificial superintelligence couldn’t come into being without being entirely modelled on the human brain, or any animal brain. A computer chip will never be the same as a biochemical neural network, and a machine will never feel emotions the same way as us (although they may feel emotions that are out of the range of human perception). But notwithstanding these differences, some computers can already acquire knowledge on their own, and will become increasingly good at it, even if they don’t learn exactly the same way as humans. Once given the chance to improve on themselves, intelligent machines could set in motion a non-biological evolution leading to greater than human intelligence, and eventually to the singularity.

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This article was originally published on Life 2.0.

CORS  Large

White Paper — Market Research and Social Media in the 21st Century http://ciowhitepapers.com/owp/119/156

How Digital Currency Could End Corruption in Afghanistan http://www.wired.com/2014/05/how-digital-currency-could-end-…ghanistan/

“Humans are lazy. People go from plausible suspicion to way overconfidence.” http://www.technologyreview.com/news/527756/lazy-humans-shap…omous-car/

Driverless Cars: Optional by 2024, Mandatory by 2044 http://spectrum.ieee.org/transportation/advanced-cars/driver…ign=buffer

Winning in the Digital Channel: The E-Commerce Opportunity in Consumer Goods http://www.accenture.com/us-en/Pages/insight-winning-digital…sf26766071

Chinese Internet Companies Rapidly Gaining Global Influence http://www.technologyreview.com/view/527706/chinese-companie…ce=twitter

Maybe Dogs Don’t Want to be Walked by a Drone http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/dog-spies/2014/05/30/2-r…y-a-drone/

Mars Ahead? SpaceX Unveils Dragon V2 Capsule for Astronaut Trips http://www.cnbc.com/id/101717620

How Smart Houses And Big Data Will Change Real Estate Economics http://www.forbes.com/sites/modeledbehavior/2014/05/19/how-s…ium=social

As Big Data Grows, a New Role Emerges: the Chief Data Officer http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2014/02/chief-data-officer.html

LA Optometrist Selling Google Glass Says Interest Is “Huge” http://internetmedicine.com/2014/05/19/la-optometrist-sellin…t-is-huge/

Glitz, Glam and SpaceX: Inside Elon Musk’s Dragon V2 Spaceship (Video) http://www.space.com/26068-elon-musk-spacex-dragon-v2-glam-reveal.html

Teen invents battery-free flashlight http://www.engineering.com/DesignerEdge/DesignerEdgeArticles…light.aspx


Walmart CEO Says Retail Giant May Buy 3D Printer Company http://www.engineering.com/3DPrinting/3DPrintingArticles/Art…mpany.aspx

Edison2 – Daytona Speedway http://www.engineering.com/DesignSoftware/DesignSoftwareArti…dison2art6

Mentor Graphics — Becoming the Standard for Electronics Design http://www.engineering.com/DesignSoftware/DesignSoftwareArti…esign.aspx

FRAUD

What the future of work looks like http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2014/05/29/what-the-future-of-work-looks-like/

The first 21st Century Passenger Spacecraft – Dragon Version 2 is Unveiled http://www.21stcentech.com/21st-century-passenger-spacecraft…-unveiled/

Our Universe May Exist in a Multiverse, Cosmic Inflation Discovery Suggests http://www.space.com/25100-multiverse-cosmic-inflation-gravitational-waves.html

Entanglement in a Quantum Annealing Processor https://journals.aps.org/prx/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevX.4.021041

Learning http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/learning
A trans-humanistic era http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/trans-humanistic-era

Hyper-connected human http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/hyper-connected-human

Google gets 12,000 requests to be ‘forgotten’ on first day http://phys.org/news/2014-05-google-forgotten-day.html

Scientists use 3D printing to make artificial blood vessels http://phys.org/news/2014-05-scientists-3d-artificial-blood-vessels.html

New drugs may make a dent in lung, ovarian cancer http://medicalxpress.com/news/2014-05-drugs-dent-lung-ovarian-cancer.html

NASA suggests humans could be on Mars by 2035 http://phys.org/news/2014-05-nasa-humans-mars.html#nRlv

The Lifeboat Foundation Worldwide Ambassador Mr. Andres Agostini’s own White Swan Update, Countermeassuring Every Unthinkable Black Swan, at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

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‘Nanodaisies’ deliver more powerful drug cocktail to cancer cells http://www.kurzweilai.net/nanodaisies-deliver-more-powerful-…ncer-cells
A research agenda for potential ecological risks of synthetic biology http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-research-agenda-for-potential-ec…ic-biology

How to make robots and self-driving cars think faster http://www.kurzweilai.net/how-to-make-robots-and-self-driving-cars-think-faster
Google’s self-driving car prototype: no steering wheel, brake, or accelerator http://www.kurzweilai.net/googles-self-driving-car-prototype…ccelerator
Can ‘Mixed Reality Living Spaces’ fix our overcrowded future? http://www.theverge.com/2014/5/26/5751336/virtual-reality-walls-bernando-schorr
Scientists achieve reliable quantum teleportation for first time http://www.cnet.com/news/scientists-achieve-reliable-quantum…irst-time/
DARPA unveils four ‘big’ cybersecurity projects http://washingtonexaminer.com/darpa-unveils-four-big-cyberse…le/2549057

Beam me up, Scotty: teleportation ‘could become reality’ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/10863929/Bea…ality.html
Pew Report: The Internet of Things http://www.ctovision.com/2014/05/pew-report-internet-things/
How MIT and Caltech’s coding breakthrough could accelerate mobile network speeds http://m.networkworld.com/community/node/85496?hpg1=bn
This Futuristic Car Design Was Inspired By A Fighter Jet’s Wing http://www.businessinsider.com/deltawing-concept-car-2014-5
100 Amazing Futuristic Design Concepts We Wish Were Real http://www.webdesignerdepot.com/2009/04/100-amazing-futurist…were-real/

Where are the real-world proven-track records of and by the White Swan Author, Mr. Andres Agostini?

a  from Profitable Challenges

What are four (4) solid real-life examples that the White Swan Author has risk-managed? Andres has many letterhead testimonials about those. See the ensuing:

1.- World-class Petroleum Refineries whose risks that Andres has managed are available at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/05/white-swan-oil-refineries

2.- World-class Oil and Gas Tankers (maritime vessels) whose risks that Andres has managed are available at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/05/white-swan-oil-gas-tankers

3.- World-class Petroleum installations, equipments and hardware whose risks that Andres has managed are available at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/05/white-swan-petroleum-installations

4.- Toyota and Mitsubishi Motors factories and installations whose risks that Andres has managed are available at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/05/white-swan-cars

logo for the symposium transparent b100 Year Starship announces a Call for Papers for the 100YSS 2014 Public Symposium. The Symposium will be held September 18–21 at the George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston, Texas, United States.

You’re invited to submit your abstract for one of the eight Technical Tracks or Poster Session and be a part of our transdisciplinary scope to include the broadest swath of ideas and people for our mission. Abstract deadline is 20 June, 2014.

The Pathway to the Stars, Footprints on Earth theme still guides the focus of 100YSS’s Public Symposium. It compels us to continue our journey and maintain our mission. Last year, our participants explored different avenues of fundamental research, technology development, societal systems, and capacities that facilitate ready access to our inner solar system. This year we move that focus forward with more in-depth access to emerging and cutting edge topics – expanding our view of design, creating new pathways in education, discovering psychology, and cutting edge transportation methods. Using a collaborative and Transdisciplinary approach to capability and capacity building, our mission will continue to support our efforts to enhance life here on earth…today. Join us as we log another year in our 100-year mission at the 100YSS 2014 Public Symposium.

Below are the tracks for our 2014 Call For Papers.

Propulsion and Energy

How fast and how far can we travel? Fundamental breakthroughs in propulsion and energy are required for interstellar travel to be feasible. To overcome the formidable time-distance barrier for travel between stars, robust leaps in theory and engineering for energy production, control and storage must occur, as well as the advancement and demonstration of propulsion techniques.

Data, Communications and Information Technology

Sending and receiving information by interstellar travelers or robotic vehicles requires development new methods to traverse the vast emptiness between stars. Additionally, in the absence of routine and timely communication with Earth, a probe or traveler must be self-sufficient in gathering, generating, compiling, storing, analyzing and retrieving data while ensuring these systems are operational over the lifetime of the mission and beyond.

Designing for Interstellar

Design for interstellar probes and crewed vehicles must address the unique characteristics and extreme environment of interstellar space. The equipment, structures, tools, materials, buildings, furniture, cleaning and maintenance processes, clothing—the accouterments of life and work— surround and create an environment. This environment protects, nourishes and facilitates daily activities. For most living things, their environment must fulfill many physical needs and for higher order creatures, physical, mental and emotional requirements need be met as well. Understanding, optimizing and manufacturing design to make these aspects of daily activities sustainable are critical for any hope of successful interstellar flight—with a living crew or robotic probes.

“Uncharted” Space and Destinations

Understanding the interstellar medium and the composition of exosolar systems is vital as we contemplate travel to the stars. In addition, as our gaze is drawn many light years away, focusing on closer objectives as stepping stones to deep space will be essential. Beyond Mars, what missions should be designed to eventuate successful travel to another star? How should potential destinations be evaluated? What do we know and how do we learn more about space between the stars?

Interstellar Education

The journey beyond our solar system will overwhelm current educational practices. Commonly held beliefs and understandings of “learning” must and will be challenged. It is probable that humans have huge untapped capacities. Innovative learning tools and educational structures are needed for syntheses of ever-increasing information. The interstellar education platform will drive new knowledge of the universe and the development of the workforce that can create all that will be needed for interstellar travel. What are these new educational paradigms? What is education’s role—formal and informal—in producing interstellar citizens?

Life Sciences in Space Exploration

As ”Earth-evolved” humans, plants and other life forms travel deeper in space, we must understand much more about the fundamentals of life mechanisms. We must prepare for radical shifts in nutrition, potential therapeutics, growth and development, physiology and ethics. Concurrently, as we search for life beyond the earth we may need to re-evaluate our perspective of what is defined as “life”. Also, how might we use the interstellar environment itself for life science research?

Becoming an Interstellar Civilization

Are humans driven to search beyond our knowledge base? How and in response to what do we create the belief systems that guide us? Interstellar travel is not just about the physical trip, but must include the journey civilizations take together. Who will we be and what will define our societies, morality, ethics, cultures, laws, economies, relationships and identities?

Interstellar Innovations Enhancing Life on Earth

Technology progresses in small increments and by leaps and bounds. Often the biggest steps forward are through the invention and innovation required to meet grand challenges. Interstellar travel represents such a challenge that may spur new economies, combat climate change, address heretofore incurable diseases. This session asks “What are these innovations and how can we deploy these to enhance life here on Earth?”

Poster Sessions

Great ideas arise through unique individual observations, from people of all ages and educational backgrounds. The Poster Sessions are an opportunity to present snapshots of these early concepts and experiments. Poster sessions are a great forum to communicate any commercial opportunities in space or here on earth and seek like-minded collaborators or investors. Presentation in the poster format allows in-depth discussion in a small group setting. Topics are open.

SUBMISSION GUIDELINES

Submissions can be perspectives on the central dogma, experimental results, and review of a specific topic. You must ensure that it fits the track topic to which you are submitting. Individual presentations will only be presented in one track. Individuals do not have to be associated with an institution to submit an abstract. Please note that materials should be non-commercial in content, any commercial presentation that communicates a service, technology or product can be submitted to our poster session.

Submissions will be reviewed based on bona fide field of inquiry/thought/research that derive from validated in patents, literature, mathematics or practice. The data submitted should represent one or more of the following:

  • Actual data or background search generated presents a challenge to current dogma or asks a significant question
  • Data moves the field forward or clarifies some aspect of the field
  • Solves a problem acknowledged in the field
  • Provides a novel, well supported integration and/or review of field and proposes specific concept

Submitted abstracts are well written, 300 word, concise and includes a statement of the following items. If actual data, results and conclusions are not available, please provide a well though out plan for how the information will be generated.

  • Background
  • Problem and hypothesis
  • Experimental design (or literature review)
  • Data
  • Results
  • Conclusions and Discussion

For Social Science submissions, (e.g. Interstellar Education and Becoming an Interstellar Civilization Tracks), the following guidelines apply for the abstract, presentation and paper submissions. The submissions should:

  • Articulate the issue or research question to be discussed,
  • Indicate the methodological or critical framework used, and
  • Indicate the findings or conclusions to be presented and/or the relevance to wider conference themes.

Presentations and papers can present any kind of research or analysis, but it should be written so that the importance of the work can be understood by reviewers working in different disciplines or using different approaches. Cross- or trans-discipline work is especially encouraged.

100YSS Poster Submissions

In order to provide a broader audience the opportunity to present their ideas, there will be on option to present a poster for your submission. All authors are welcome to present in the Poster session. Individuals can submit for poster session only. A Track Chair may also select submissions for a poster presentation. Individuals or companies advertising a service, technology or product can submit for poster only presentations. If you are a commercial entity, the poster session may be the perfect opportunity to present you idea. Each poster must fit into the 100YSS mission and provide a valid line of inquiry. The final submission should be 4ft x 4ft or 122 cm x 122 cm.

2014 Call for Papers Timeline

  • Call for papers opens: 11 April
  • Abstracts due: 20 June
  • Notification of acceptance: 15 July
  • If accepted, Presentations and Posters Due: 10 September

The 100YSS Style Guide for Papers will be provided to presenters on acceptance of abstract.

To submit your abstract, visit: http://100yss.org/symposium/2014/

Please note that you will be asked to create an account to submit your abstract. Registration for the symposium itself is coming soon.

Toyota and Mitsubishi Motors factories and installations that have continuously benefited from Mr. Andres Agostini’s White Swan Transformative and Integrative Risk Management. The White Swan Idea is at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

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Oil Refineries that has continuously benefited from Mr. Andres Agostini’s White Swan Transformative and Integrative Risk Management. The White Swan Idea is at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

Through five and half years, the White Swan Book’s Author Andres Agostini concurrently managed the risks of the world’s number 1 and the world’s number 3 Oil Refineries. There is a sample of installations of these two refineries.

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The White Swan Idea is at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

The Lifeboat Foundation Worldwide Ambassador Mr. Andres Agostini’s own White Swan Negative Risks, Countermeassuring Every Unthinkable Black Swan, at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

What is a Negative Risk, Countermesured by the White Swan Transformative and Integrative Risk Management Methodology?

“… Negative Risk is the quantitative or qualitative expression of possible loss that considers both the probability that an event will occur and the consequences of that event and/or the likeliness of injury, harm, damage, disruption or loss multiplied by its potential magnitude …”