An El Niño that could beat 1997’s record is taking shape in the Pacific, leaving scientists watching for its next move.

El Niño is part of a natural climate pattern that returns roughly every two to seven years. Its most recent very strong events, in 1997–98 and 2015–16, disrupted weather worldwide. Consequences included fires in Indonesia and the Amazon, crop failures caused by drought in southern Africa, and heavy rain and coastal flooding in Southern California.

Satellite measurements show that the current El Niño resembles the 1997–98 event, with warm water stretching across the equatorial Pacific to South America. But that oceanic resemblance does not guarantee the same weather during winter 2026–27, as the outcome also depends on how the atmosphere responds.