Questions to inspire discussion.
Autonomy and FSD
🤖 Q: What is the biggest valuation upside for Tesla? A: Tesla’s autonomy roadmap is considered the biggest valuation upside, with the company’s robotaxi plans involving 5-passenger vehicles without a driver seat potentially increasing upside option values for investors.
🚘 Q: How has Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system improved? A: FSD has made massive improvements with Version 13, and Version 14 may be the breakthrough moment that pushes Tesla past human-level driving and conquers another three nines of safety.
Future Projections.
📈 Q: What is the expected FSD take rate in the coming years? A: The FSD take rate is projected to increase to 20% in the next few years, with cyber cabs having FSD included, while individual owners may need to opt-in for a while before it becomes standard on all new cars.
🌐 Q: Will the Model Y L be available in the US and Europe? A: The availability of the Model Y L in the US and Europe is currently uncertain, as it was initially introduced for the Chinese market to boost demand and production efficiency.
## Key Insights.
Autonomous Driving Progress.
🚗 Tesla’s FSD version 13 has achieved 5,000 miles between safety-critical disengagements, marking significant progress towards human-level safety, but still needs to improve by two more orders of magnitude.
🤖 Tesla’s robotaxi plans involve 5-passenger vehicles without a driver’s seat, potentially increasing the company’s upside option values while presenting logistical challenges for managing a large network.
Product Strategy.
🚘 The new Model Y L in China features cooling seats, upgraded interior, and production strategy changes to increase capacity utilization and maintain high demand.
💺 Tesla’s Model S and X are now only available with FSD included at higher prices, possibly signaling a move towards mandatory FSD on all new vehicles.
Market Expansion.
📈 Tesla’s FSD take rate is expected to reach 20% in the coming years, with all cyber cabs including FSD, but achieving 100% FSD attach rates depends on conquering safety aspects.
🌍 The availability of the Model Y L in the US and Europe remains uncertain, potentially indicating a China-focused strategy or future global expansion plans.
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Tesla is preparing to launch new and improved versions of its Model Y and Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, with enhanced features and capabilities that may drive demand, increase capacity utilization, and shift the company’s focus towards autonomy-enabled vehicles.
Production and Features 🚗 Q: What are the key features of Tesla’s new Model Y L in China? A: The Model Y L includes cooling seats, upgraded interior, automatic fold-down seats, and armrests that come up and down, aimed at increasing capacity utilization and maintaining high demand in the Chinese market. 🏭 Q: How does the Model Y L’s production strategy benefit Tesla? A: The strategy helps keep production lines occupied and fully producing at a rate of over 500,000 units per quarter, supporting Tesla’s goal to increase capacity utilization and maintain high demand.