Toggle light / dark theme

Independence Day weekend seems like a good time to push the envelope on what is possible for human beings to achieve. Hell, if a rag-tag band of colonists could kick the mighty Brits’ butts so long ago, how hard can it be for today’s people to live to 150, use 3D printers to create new organs, and develop superpowers? Read more

3048515-inline-s-9-new-horizons-launch

One thing you don’t expect when planning a nine-year mission to the most distant planet in our solar system is the eventuality that Pluto might not be a planet once you got there.

Yet that’s exactly what went down in 2006. That January, NASA launched its unmanned New Horizons probe, a baby grand piano-sized, 1,054-pound spacecraft, on the first-ever route to Pluto. Then, in August 2006, the International Astronomical Union demoted Pluto to the diminutive status of “dwarf planet.”

Read more

DUBAI TO BUILD WORLD’S FIRST 3D PRINTED OFFICE

Fast-growing Dubai, where something new is always being added to the skyline, may have found a way to make construction move even faster.

In a bid to become a global hub of innovation, Dubai announced plans to build an office that will be “the most advanced 3-D printed structure ever built at this scale” and the first to be put into actual use.

Read More

OK. In scientific terms, it is only a ‘hypothesis’ — the reverse of the ‘Disposable Soma’ theory of ageing. Here how it goes.

For the past several decades, the Disposable Soma theory of ageing has been enjoying good publicity and a lively interest from both academics and the public alike. It stands up to scientific scrutiny, makes conceptual sense and fits well within an evolutionary framework of ageing. The theory basically suggests that, due to energy resource constraints, there is a trade-off between somatic cell and germ cell repair. As a result, germ cells are being repaired effectively and so the survival of the species is assured, at a cost of individual somatic (bodily) ageing and death. To put it very simply, we are disposable, we age and die because all the effective repair mechanisms have been diverted to our germ cell DNA in order to guarantee the survival of our species.

The theory accounts for many repair pathways and mechanisms converging upon the germ cell, and also for many of those mechanisms being driven away from somatic cell repair just to ensure germ cell survival. In the past two or three years however, it is increasingly being realised that this process is not unidirectional (from soma to germ), but it is bi-directional: under certain circumstances, somatic cells may initiate damage that affects germ cells, and also that germ cells may initiate repairs that benefit somatic cells!

I can’t even begin to describe how important this bi-directionality is. Taking this in a wider and more speculative sense, it is, in fact, the basis for the cure of ageing. The discovery that germ cells can (or are forced to) relinquish their repair priorities, and that resources can then be re-allocated for somatic repairs instead, means that we may be able to avoid age-related damage (because this would be repaired with greater fidelity) and, at the same time, avoid overpopulation (as our now damaged genetic material would be unsuitable for reproduction).

Ermolaeva et al. raised the further possibility that DNA damage in germ cells may protect somatic cells. They suggested that DNA injury in germ cells upregulates stress resistance pathways in somatic cells, and improves stress response to heat or oxidation. This is profoundly important because it shows that, in principle, when germ cells are damaged, they produce agents which can then protect somatic cells against systemic stress.

This mechanism may reflect an innate tendency to reverse the trade-offs between germ cell and somatic cell repair: when the germ cells are compromised, there is delay in offspring production matched by an increased repair of somatic cells. In Nature’s ‘eyes’, if the species cannot survive, at least the individual bodies should.

In addition, it was shown that neuronal stress induces apoptosis (orderly cell death) in the germ line. This process is mediated by the IRE-1 factor, an endoplasmic reticulum stress response sensor, which then activates p53 and initiates the apoptotic cascade in the germ line. Therefore germ cells may die due to a stress response originating from the distantly-located neurons.

If this mechanism exists, it is likely that other similar mechanisms must also exist, waiting to described. The consequence could be that neuronal positive stress (i.e. exposure to meaningful information that entices us to act) can affect our longevity by downgrading the importance of germ cell repair in favour of somatic tissue repair. In other words, the disposable soma theory can be seen in reverse: the soma (body) is not necessarily disposable but it can survive longer if it becomes indispensable, if it is ‘useful to the whole. This, as we claimed last week, can happen through mechanisms which are independent of any artificial biotechnological interventions.

We know that certain events which downgrade reproduction, may also cause a lifespan extension. Ablation of germ cells in the C.elegans worm, leads to an increased lifespan, which shows that signals from the germline have a direct impact upon somatic cell survival, and this may be due to an increased resistance of somatic cells to stress. Somatic intracellular clearance systems are also up-regulated following signals from the germ line.

In addition, protein homoeostasis in somatic cells is well-maintained when germ cells are damaged, and it is significantly downgraded when germ cell function increases. All of the above suggest that when the germ cells are healthy, somatic repair decreases, and when they are not, somatic repair improves as a counter-effect.

In an intriguing paper published last month, Lin et al. showed that under certain circumstances, somatic cells may adopt germ-like characteristics, which may suggest that these somatic cells can also be subjected to germ line protection mechanisms after their transformation. A few days ago Bazley et al. published a paper elucidating the mechanisms of how germ cells may induce somatic cell reprogramming and somatic stem cell pluripotency. This is an additional piece of evidence of the cross-talk mechanisms between soma and germ line, underscoring the fact that the health of somatic tissues depends upon signals from the germ line.

In all, there is sufficient initial evidence to suggest that my line of thinking is quite possibly correct: that the disposable soma theory is not unidirectional and the body may not, after all, be always ‘disposable’. Under certain evolutionary pressures we could experience increased somatic maintenance at the expense of germ cell repairs, and thus reach a situation where the body actually lives longer. I have already discussed that some of these evolutionary pressures could be dependent upon how well one makes themselves ‘indispensable’ to the adaptability of the homo sapiens species within a global techno-cultural environment.

2015-16SOF

The 2015–16 State of the Future is a compelling overview of humanity’s present situation, challenges and opportunities, potentials for the future, and actions and policies that could improve humanity’s outlook — in clear, precise, and readable text with unparalleled breadth and depth. “It is time for intolerance of irrelevant speeches and non-actions by leaders. The stakes are too high to tolerate business as usual”, warns the Executive Summary of the report.

A lucid, thought-provoking, strategically oriented exploration of the transforming world order.
Mihaly Simai, former Chairman, United Nations University

The State of the Future can make a difference in the world. Well done.
Wendell Bell, Professor Emeritus, Yale University

Global intelligence on the future of the world in the palm of your hand
KurzweilAI News

So important for many people around the world.
Eleonora Masini, former Secretary and President, World Futures Studies Federation

Absolutely worth the reader’s time… takes the reader much farther forward than most thinking.
Defense & Foreign Affairs Policy Journal

Strategic Planning for the Planet… remarkably articulate and prescient
Willian Halal, Foresight Journal

Authoritative compendium of what we know about the future of humanity and our planet.
The Futurist

Certainly, the guide to make better decisions and achieve success.
Julio Millán, President Coraza Corporación Azteca

Invaluable insights into the future for the United Nations, its Member States, and civil society.
Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General, United Nations

DESCRIPTION and FOREWORD

The 2015–16 State of the Future brings together an extraordinarily diverse set of data, information, intelligence, and hopefully some wisdom about the future. This is the eighteenth edition of the State of the Future. We believe that each edition is better than the last. We update data, improve insights, and respond to feedback. You can add your feedback online at the Global Futures Intelligence System (themp.org). There is a comment icon in the lower right corner of the executive summary and the same for
every one of the 15 Global Challenges.

The short overviews of the 15 Global Challenges are getting longer and more detailed each year. In addition to giving you possibly the best overview in existence for each challenge, think of these as a reference to keep on your desk to return to as needed. Just as you would not speedread the encyclopedia, this section should also be taken in short doses. Take your time to reflect on what you are reading in each challenge and in the sections on the State of the Future Index and the Future Work/ Technology 2050.
This is the second year we have used the Global Futures Intelligence System to update and improve the State of the Future report. The challenges in GFIS are updated daily from news aggregations, scanning items, situation charts, and other resources, which has led to greater detail and depth than in the previous edition.

While this report presents the distilled results of recent research by The Millennium Project, GFIS contains the detailed background and data for that research, plus all of The Millennium Project’s research since its founding in 1996. It also contains the largest internationally peerreviewed set of methods to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one source. Readers of this report should subscribe to GFIS to keep up to date and participate in improving insights about future possibilities.

The purpose of futures research is to systematically explore, create, and test both possible and desirable futures in order to improve decisions. Just as the person on top of the mast on old sailing ships used to point out the rocks and safe channels to the captain below for the smooth running of the ship through uncharted waters, so too futurists with foresight systems for the world can point out problems and opportunities to leaders and the public around the world. Since decision-making is increasingly affected by globalization, global futures research is increasingly valuable for decision-making by individuals, groups, and institutions. The quality of democracies emerging around the world is enhanced by better-informed publics; understanding issues and opportunities in this report can contribute to improved democratic decision-making.

This report is for thought leaders, decision-makers, and all those who care about the world and its future. Readers will learn how their interests fit into the global situation and how the global situation may affect them and their interests. The State of the Future and GFIS provide an additional eye on global change. These are information utilities that
people can draw from as relevant to their unique needs. They provide an overview of the global strategic landscape. Business executives use the research as input to their strategic planning. University professors, futurists, and other consultants find this information useful in teaching and research.

The Millennium Project is a global participatory think tank of futurists, scholars, scientists, business planners, and policy makers who work for international organizations, governments, corporations, NGOs, and universities and who volunteer their time to improve each edition of the State of the Future. It was selected to be among the top
10 think tanks in the world for new ideas and paradigms by the 2013 and 2014 University of Pennsylvania’s GoTo Think Tank Index and as a 2012 Computerworld Honors Laureate for its innovations in collective intelligence systems.

The purposes of The Millennium Project are to assist in organizing futures research, improve thinking about the future, and make that thinking available through a variety of media for consideration in policymaking, advanced training, public education, and feedback, ideally in order to accumulate wisdom about potential futures.

The Project’s diversity of opinions and global views is ensured by its 56 Nodes around the world. These are groups of individuals and organizations that interconnect global and local perspectives. They identify participants, conduct interviews, translate and distribute questionnaires, and conduct research and conferences. It is through their contributions that the world picture of this report and indeed all of The Millennium Project’s work emerge.

Through its research, publications, addresses at conferences, and Nodes, The Millennium Project helps to nurture an international collaborative spirit of free inquiry and feedback for increasing collective intelligence to improve social, technical, and environmental viability for human development. Feedback on any sections of the book is most
welcome and may help shape the next State of the Future, GFIS, and the general work of The Millennium Project.

Read more