Weather forecasting is another aspect of modern life that artificial intelligence is transforming. Models like GraphCast, Pangu-Weather, and Fuxi are already better than traditional physics-based climate models at predicting some daily weather conditions. However, they are far from perfect. A new study published in the journal Science Advances reports that AI often fails to predict record-breaking extreme weather events.

Thanks to our changing climate, extremes such as record heat waves and windstorms are becoming more frequent. Accurate warnings are vital to help protect lives, property, and infrastructure. However, the unprecedented nature of these events poses a problem for AI.

To understand why, scientists pitted leading AI models against HRES (High Resolution Forecast), considered one of the world’s leading physics-based weather prediction systems. They first built a large database of record-breaking heat, cold, and wind events from 2018 and 2020. The researchers then checked the forecasts that HRES and the AI models had already made for those years to see which system got closest to the real-world outcomes.