Questions to inspire discussion.
💰 Q: What would California’s wealth tax cost super voting shareholders like Larry Page and Sergey Brin? A: The tax multiplies voting ownership percentage by market cap to value super voting shares, resulting in a punitive tax rate of up to 50% on net worth for founders with control premiums.
🏃 Q: How much wealth could leave California if the asset seizure tax passes? A: An estimated half a trillion dollars in net worth could exit the state, creating severe budget implications for California’s social programs and general budget.
📊 Q: What should entrepreneurs do to prepare for potential wealth taxes on unrealized gains? A: Maintain a liquid safety net to cover tax bills on unrealized gains, though this is impossible to plan for if stock values later decline and bankrupt the company.
2026 Business Opportunities.
🤖 Q: Which company will become the first with more robots than humans? A: Amazon is predicted to become the first company with more robots than humans driving its bottom line by 2026 as they deploy robots while keeping human hiring flat.
📈 Q: Why is copper predicted to go parabolic in 2026? A: Copper shortages for data centers, chips, and weapon systems will create a 70% shortfall by 2040 at current demand-supply dynamics, driving prices up dramatically.
💼 Q: What type of IPO activity is expected in 2026? A: Mega IPOs from companies like SpaceX, Stripe, and OpenAI are anticipated, potentially creating trillions of dollars in new market cap for public companies.
🔧 Q: How is 100% accelerated depreciation driving infrastructure investment? A: 100% accelerated depreciation for capital equipment like tractors, generators, and seaman stocks is creating a massive infrastructure build-out and contributing to GDP growth as businesses invest again.
M&A and Deal Strategies.
🤝 Q: What M&A workaround could enable 50+ billion dollar deals in 2026? A: IP licensing deals could bypass traditional M&A challenges, enabling 50+ billion dollar deals with companies like Apple, Meta, Microsoft, or Amazon acquiring AI firms like Anthropic or Perplexity.
🚀 Q: How might SpaceX go public without a traditional IPO? A: SpaceX may reverse merge into Tesla for consolidated control of Elon Musk’s key assets rather than pursuing a traditional IPO.
📺 Q: What deal could determine Netflix’s 2026 performance? A: Netflix faces potential underperformance if it doesn’t close the Warner Brothers deal, as it competes against independent creators and citizen journalism.
🔄 Q: How could Trump administration policies boost M&A activity? A: Trump administration easing regulations could enable companies to merge and grow from MAG 7 to MAG 17, increasing global market footprints.
AI and Automation Disruption.
💻 Q: How will AI disrupt the $3–4 trillion SaaS economy in 2026? A: Software companies selling licensed SaaS to corporations may see revenue shrink as AI models and techniques disrupt maintenance and migration patterns in the $3–4 trillion/year economy.
👨💼 Q: What employment challenge will Gen Z face in 2026? A: Young white-collar workers will struggle to find entry-level jobs as companies increasingly automate with AI rather than training Gen Z graduates.
📊 Q: Why will AI increase demand for knowledge workers despite automation? A: According to Sachs’ Jevans paradox, as the cost of generating code and scans decreases, more use cases emerge, leading to increased demand for coders and radiologists.
Political and Regulatory Shifts.
🗳️ Q: What political shift threatens Democratic moderates in 2026? A: Democratic centrism is predicted to lose as socialist ideology ascends among the Democratic base, especially young people, with fewer than two dozen truly competitive House races due to gerrymandering.
🌎 Q: How is the Monroe Doctrine changing under Trump’s approach? A: The Monroe Doctrine is shifting towards transactional relationships and unilateralism under the Trump doctrine, moving away from hemispheric dominance and proactive intervention.
🏛️ Q: What financial scrutiny will state governments face in 2026? A: State governments may face financing problems due to exposés on waste, fraud, and abuse in state agencies, leading to questions about long-term solvency and operations.
🔍 Q: What government spending reform is needed for transparency? A: Independent audits of all government spending, including the Pentagon, are needed to normalize public scrutiny of where taxpayer money is going.
Tech Industry Challenges.
⚡ Q: What political pressure will the tech industry face in 2026? A: Populism rises on both left and right, with the right fracturing the alliance between tech and MAGA, and the left turning hard on tech due to its alignment with the right.
🏢 Q: What will drive business exodus from California in 2026? A: California’s wealth tax and onerous regulations will drive business and capital out of the state, with potential panic if the tax makes the ballot.
Geopolitical Predictions.
🇮🇷 Q: What major Middle East shift could occur in 2026? A: Iran’s potential transition to an independent democratic state, driven by a youthful population and economic crisis, could be one of the biggest geopolitical shifts in the Middle East.
🏜️ Q: What regional conflict may intensify in the Middle East in 2026? A: Middle East conflict may intensify among Gulf states like UAE, Saudi, and Qatar, vying for influence as Iran undergoes regime change and the two-state solution emerges.
Financial and Crypto Trends.
🔐 Q: What cryptocurrency development could central banks pursue? A: Central banks could seek a new cryptographic currency that is fungible, tradable, secure, and private to hedge against potential quantum computing threats to existing cryptographic schemes.
Media and Content Evolution.
📰 Q: What media trend will grow in 2026? A: Citizen journalism is expected to grow with more expose-style reporting and investigative work as traditional media models are disrupted and monetization emerges through Substack and YouTube.
Global Economic Trends.
🌐 Q: What macro trends must economic actors understand in 2026? A: Unilateralism and economic resilience are massive global trends that will have significant impact on GDP growth as countries prioritize self-sufficiency.
Investment Strategy.
📉 Q: What asset class faces challenges from independent creators? A: Traditional media stocks may struggle against the rise of independent creators and citizen journalism, threatening content libraries and creator relationships.
Market Access.
📊 Q: Why is the public eager for mega IPOs in 2026? A: The public wants to participate in the limited number of publicly traded companies and secondary market trading, creating demand for mega IPOs from high-growth private companies.
## Key Insights.
California Wealth Tax Crisis.
🏛️ California’s proposed 5% asset seizure tax on illiquid net worth could drive out half a trillion dollars in wealth, potentially bankrupting entrepreneurs stuck with illiquid stock and massive tax bills even if their companies fail the following year.
💼 The tax would multiply super voting shares by the company’s market cap, potentially deeming Larry Page and Sergey Brin’s shares worth $1 trillion each, creating punitive tax burdens that could force their departure from California.
🤝 The asset seizure tax is uniting left and right, with even Reid Hoffman opposing it, threatening to drive out half the wealth the state estimated would be taxable with massive implications for social programs and budget.
🏠 California luxury real estate is predicted to underperform in 2026 due to the wealth tax overhang, which could freeze the high-end market as wealthy residents anticipate the policy.
📉 California is predicted to be a business loser in 2026 due to the proposed wealth tax and onerous regulations driving business and capital out, with potential for a panic and rush for exits if measures reach the ballot.
Government Finance and Accountability.
💰 State governments face challenges in financing due to exposés on waste, fraud, and abuse in agencies, raising questions about long-term solvency and unrealized pension liabilities that could impact their ability to access capital markets.
🔍 Whistleblowers and independent audits of all government spending, including the Pentagon, are needed to ensure transparency and accountability in 2026.
Political Landscape Shifts.
🗳️ Democratic centrism is losing ground as socialist ideology ascends among young Democrats, with fewer than two dozen truly competitive House districts due to gerrymandering, exposing incumbents to challenges from the left.
🌎 The Monroe Doctrine is being replaced by Trump’s transactional approach to hemispheric dominance, focusing on specific interventions against drug cartels, immigration control, and securing vital assets with more flexible responses.
⚖️ The tech industry faces populist backlash from both right due to past censorship and deplatforming and left over perceived alignment with conservative causes, with calls for truth and reconciliation meetings between tech leaders and conservative influencers.
Commodity and Asset Markets.
🔶 Copper is set to become a parabolic asset by 2040, with a projected 70% global supply shortage due to its critical role in data centers, chips, and weapon sy.
The All-In podcast crew is making predictions for 2026, forecasting significant changes and trends in the economy, politics, technology, and markets, including potential wealth tax repercussions in California, economic booms and busts, and shifts in various industries.
California Wealth Tax Impact 🚨 Q: How could California’s 5% asset seizure tax bankrupt entrepreneurs with illiquid stock? A: Entrepreneurs would need to sell twice the amount of their net worth to cover the tax on unrealized gains because selling stock triggers additional taxes, potentially bankrupting companies with no liquidity. 💰 Q: What would California’s wealth tax cost super voting shareholders like Larry Page and Sergey Brin?