Love this short paper which reveals a significant insight about alien life with a simple ‘back-of-the-envelope’ calculation! — “We find that as long as the probability that a habitable zone planet develops a technological species is larger than ~10^-24, humanity is not the only time technological intelligence has evolved.” [In the observable universe]

Free preprint version: https://arxiv.org/abs/1510.

#aliens #astrobiology #life #universe

Abstract In this article, we address the cosmic frequency of technological species. Recent advances in exoplanet studies provide strong constraints on all astrophysical terms in the Drake equation. Using these and modifying the form and intent of the Drake equation, we set a firm lower bound on the probability that one or more technological species have evolved anywhere and at any time in the history of the observable Universe. We find that as long as the probability that a habitable zone planet develops a technological species is larger than ∼10−24, humanity is not the only time technological intelligence has evolved. This constraint has important scientific and philosophical consequences. Key Words: Life—Intelligence—Extraterrestrial life. Astrobiology 2016359–362.