Renewable generation should be around 50 per cent of supply on Australia’s main grid by July, 2026, although it might be a bit less depending on progress on the second stage of Golden Plains, which will be the country’s biggest wind farm – at least for a time – when complete.
To get to 80 per cent by 2030 will partly depend on what happens to demand. If demand is flat, then capacity capable of supplying around 67 terawatt hours (TWh) a year will be needed. After allowing for rooftop solar, I reckon that equates to about 25 gigawatts of new capacity, maybe a bit more.
That’s a heck of an ask, but in my opinion still possible and broadly in line with the objectives and scale of the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS). I’ll have more to say on the role of the CIS once I get round to talking about ITK’s price forecasts, but that can wait. We’re talking capacity and output in this not.
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