The formula for rational thinking explained by Harvard professor Steven Pinker.
Up next, The war on rationality ► https://youtu.be/qdzNKQwkp-Y
In his explanation of Bayes’ theorem, cognitive psychologist Steven Pinker highlights how this type of reasoning can help us determine the degree of belief we assign to a claim based on available evidence.
Bayes’ theorem takes into account the prior probability of a claim, the likelihood of the evidence given the claim is true, and the commonness of the evidence regardless of the claim’s truth.
While Bayes’ theorem can be useful for making statistical predictions, Pinker cautions that it may not always be appropriate in situations where fairness and other moral considerations are important. Therefore, it’s crucial to consider when Bayes’ theorem is applicable and when it’s not.
0:00 What is Bayesian thinking?
1:01 The formula.
2:41 When Bayes’ theorem obscures the solution.
4:25 Bayes’ theorem in a nutshell.
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