May 17, 2022

Is AI Progress Impossible To Predict?

Posted by in category: robotics/AI

People seem to be continually surprised, over and over again, by the new capabilities of big machine learning models, such as PaLM, DALL-E, Chinchilla, SayCan, Socratic Models, Flamingo, and Gato (all in the last two months!). Luckily, there is a famous paper on how AI progress is governed by scaling laws, where models predictably get better as they get larger. Could we forecast AI progress ahead of time by seeing how each task gets better with model size, draw out the curve, and calculate which size model is needed to reach human performance?

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