Jun 6, 2016

Non-experts typically better at forecasting future than experts

Posted by in categories: economics, employment

Interesting twist; wonder how many tax dollars paid for the experts?

There is a bitter truth for economists, as well as professionals in other areas. Non-experts are typically better at forecasting future trends than experts.

It has been argued that economists should be historians rather than meteorologists and many years before the recent economic crash, John Kenneth Galbraith, the late Harvard economist, joked: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

Justin Wolfers, an economist, wrote last Friday in the New York Times on the May US jobs report which showed job creation falling to a net 38,000 in the month:

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