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Threats to humanity – the old and the resurgent

Following is a discussion of two potential threats to humanity – one which has existed for eons, the second we have seen recently resurfacing having thought it had been laid to rest.

First, a recent story on PhysOrg describes the work researchers at Vanderbilt University have performed in isolating antibodies from elderly people who had survived the 1918 flu pandemic. This comes three years after researchers at Mount Sinai and the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in Washington, D.C isolated the same virus which caused this outbreak from the frozen bodies of people in Alaska who had died in the pandemic.

In addition to being an impressive achievement of biomedical science, which involved isolating antibody-secreting B cells from donors and generating “immortalized” cell lines to produce large amounts of antibodies, this research also demonstrates the amazing memory the immune system has (90 years!), as well as the ability scientists have to use tissue samples from people born nearly a century ago and fashion them into a potential weapon against future similar outbreaks. Indeed, these manufactured antibodies proved effective against 1918 flu virus when tested in mice.

Furthermore, such research provides tools which could help generate antibodies to treat other viruses which still blight humanity (such as HIV) or are seen as potential threats, such as avian influenza.

http://www.physorg.com/news138198336.html

Second, nuclear annihilation. Russia’s recent foray into Georgia and the ensuing tensions with the west have brought the specter of the cold war back from the dead, and with it increasing levels of aggressive rhetoric from both sides and more or less veiled threats of action, some of it diplomatic, some military.

During the past twenty years, ever since the fall of the former Soviet Union, we have become used to living in a world no longer directly and overtly threatened by complete annihilation through world war III. Is this about to change? It would seem that despite current tensions, present conditions are far from fostering a renewed cold war.

Modern day Russia (and China can be described along similar lines) is inexorably tied to the world economy and does not represent a conflicting ideology striving for world domination as was the case during the most of the latter half of the twentieth century. This deep international integration stems from the almost global acceptance of the market economy as the preferred driving force for economic growth, albeit under different forms of government. Both Russia and China are (currently) fueled more by the will being recognized as premier global forces rather than the will to rule the world, the former wishing to return to its previous position and reclaim the respect it feels it lost during the last couple of decades, and the latter rising anew after centuries in the shadows.

Of course, the coming elections in the US may change the tone prevalent in the international brinkmanship game, although the involvement of the EU, led by French premier Sarkozy means that such strong statements coming from Western Europe are not set to change fundamentally.

So, unless further surprises are in store for us (a possibility which cannot be ignored when dealing with political and military maneuvering, especially those involving the tense conditions prevalent in many of the former Soviet republics), a compromise will eventually be reached and respected. The seeds of a calming effort have already been felt in recent days with much less inflammatory declarations from both sides, and signs of a Russian willingness to tone down at least the public face of disagreements with the EU and US. This is likely set to continue…at least until the next outbreak of nationalistic violence or political sword-brandishing in a region in which tensions run high.

An interesting analysis of the current situation can be found at: http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/29/oakley.eu.russia/

Safeguarding Humanity

I was born into a world in which no individual or group claimed to own the mission embodied in the Lifeboat Foundation’s two-word motto. Government agencies, charitable organizations, universities, hospitals, religious institutions — all might have laid claim to some peace of the puzzle. But safeguarding humanity? That was out of everyone’s scope. It would have been a plausible motto only for comic-book organizations such as the Justice League or the Guardians of the Universe.

Take the United Nations, conceived in the midst of the Second World War and brought into its own after the war’s conclusion. The UN Charter states that the United Nations exists:

  • to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war, which twice in our lifetime has brought untold sorrow to mankind, and
  • to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small, and
  • to establish conditions under which justice and respect for the obligations arising from treaties and other sources of international law can be maintained, and
  • to promote social progress and better standards of life in larger freedom

All of these are noble, and incredibly important, aims. But even the United Nations manages to name only one existential risk, warfare, which it is pledged to help prevent. Anyone reading this can probably cite a half dozen more.

It is both exciting and daunting to live in an age in which a group like the Lifeboat Foundation can exist outside of the realm of fantasy. It’s exciting because our awareness of possibility is so much greater than it was even a generation or two ago. And it is daunting for exactly the same reason. We can envision plausible triumphs for humanity that really do transcend our wildest dreams, or at least our most glorious fantasies as articulated a few decades ago. Likewise, that worst of all possible outcomes — the sudden and utter disappearance of our civilization, or of our species, or of life itself — now presents itself as the end result of not just one possible calamity, but of many.

I’ve spent the last few years writing about many of those plausible triumphs, while paying less attention to the possible calamities. But I’m not sure that this is a clear-cut dichotomy. Pursuing the former may ultimately provide us with the tools and resources we will need to contend with the latter. So my own personal motto becomes something of a double-edged sword. I encourage everyone to strive to “live to see it.” But maybe we also need to figure out how we can see it…to live.

With that in mind, perhaps “safeguarding humanity” takes on a double meaning, too. We must find a way for humanity to survive in the face of these very real threats. Moreover, we must find a way for humanity — the values, the accomplishments, the sense of purpose which has defined the entire human experience — to survive. And that may be the most audacious mission statement of all.

Stephen Gordon and I will be interviewing the Lifeboat Foundation’s International Spokesperson Philippe Van Nedervelde on our podcast, FastForward Radio on Feb 17, 2008 at 7:00 PM Pacific / 10:00 PM Eastern. We’ll be talking about risks and the role of Lifeboat in helping to mitigate against them.

Lifeboat Foundation SAB member asks “Is saving humanity is worth the cost?”

In his most recent paper “Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction,” SAB member Jason G. Matheny approached the topic of human extinction from what is unfortunately a somewhat unusual angle. Jason examined the cost effectiveness of preventing humanity’s extinction due to a catastrophic asteroid impact.

Even with some rather pessimistic assumptions, his calculations showed a pretty convincing return on investment. For only about US$ 2.50 per life year saved, Matheny predicts that we could mitigate the risk of humanity being killed off by a large asteroid. Maybe it’s just me, but it sounds pretty compelling.

Matheny also made a very good point that we all should ponder when we consider how our charitable giving and taxes gets spent. “We take extraordinary measures to protect some endangered species from extinction. It might be reasonable to take extraordinary measures to protect humanity from the same.”

For more coverage on this important paper please see the October 2007 issue of Risk Analysis and a recent edition of Nature News.

Will AI need a body to come close to human-like intelligence?

The first robot I remember is Rosie from The Jetsons, soon followed by the urbane C-3PO and his faithful sidekick R2-D2 in The Empire Strikes Back. But my first disembodied AI was Joshua, the computer in WarGames who tried to start a nuclear war – until it learned about mutually assured destruction and chose to play chess instead.

At age seven, this changed me. Could a machine understand ethics? Emotion? Humanity? Did artificial intelligence need a body? These fascinations deepened as the complexity of non-human intelligence did with characters like the android Bishop in Aliens, Data in Star Trek: TNG, and more recently with Samantha in Her, or Ava in Ex Machina.

But these aren’t just speculative questions anymore. Roboticists today are wrestling with the question of whether artificial intelligence needs a body? And if so, what kind?

EARTh pARTy Conference

Conference at Forbes Island (San Francisco Bay) in July 2025 featuring Brewster Kahle Tim Anderson Heidi Petty:

The eARTh pARTy Conference brings together visionaries in technology, art, and culture on a unique floating island to reimagine our collective future. Over three immersive days, we’ll explore how technology can empower rather than control humanity’s creative potential.

Our world stands at a crossroads. This gathering champions a future where creators maintain ownership of their work, receive fair compensation, and preserve their digital autonomy. Together, we’ll explore what a future looks like with a distributed creative network that advocates for ethical platforms and transparent systems.

The pieces for our future already exist. We simply need the courage to reassemble them into a world where creative expression flourishes, and the impact you make becomes your most valuable asset.

Join us in launching a movement that ensures technology serves human creativity rather than exploiting it.


Building the future of creative economies: decentralized, regenerative, thriving.

Control of spin qubits at near absolute zero provides path forward for scalable quantum computing

Developing technology that allows quantum information to be both stable and accessible is a critical challenge in the development of useful quantum computers that operate at scale. Research published in the journal Nature provides a pathway for scaling the number of quantum transistors (known as qubits) on a chip from current numbers under 100 to the millions needed to make quantum computation a practical reality. The result is enabled by new cryogenic control electronics that operate at close to absolute zero, developed at the University of Sydney.

Lead researcher Professor David Reilly from the University of Sydney Nano Institute and School of Physics said, “This will take us from the realm of quantum computers being fascinating laboratory machines to the stage where we can start discovering the real-world problems that these devices can solve for humanity.”

The paper is the result of industry cooperation between the University of Sydney and the University of New South Wales through the respective quantum tech spin-out companies Emergence Quantum and Diraq. Professor Reilly’s company, Emergence Quantum, was established this year to commercialize quantum control technologies and other advanced electronics like the chip presented in this Nature paper.

The Minds That Left Reality | Diaspora

Greg Egan’s Diaspora is one of the most ambitious and mind-bending science fiction novels ever published. It came out in 1997 and originally started as a short story called “Wang’s Carpets.” That story ended up as a chapter in the novel. Diaspora is: dense, smart, and way ahead of its time.
This is hard science fiction to the core. Egan invents entire new branches of physics. He reimagines life, consciousness, time, space — even what it means to be human. The book doesn’t ease you in. There’s a glossary, invented physics theories like Kozuch Theory, and characters that don’t even have genders. But if you stick with it, what you get isn’t just a story, it’s a look at what the future might actually become.
By the year 2,975, humanity isn’t one species anymore. It’s split into three groups: Fleshers: The biological humans, including the “statics” (unchanged baseline humans) and all sorts of heavily modified versions — underwater people, gene-hacked thinkers, even “dream apes” who gave up speech to live closer to nature. Gleisners: AIs in robotic bodies that live in space. They care about the physical world and experience time like regular humans. They’re kind of old-school — still sending ships to the stars, trying to build things in real space. Citizens: These are digital minds that live entirely in simulated worlds called polises.

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Connected Minds: Preparing For The Cognitive Gig Economy

There’s also the risk of neuro-exploitation. In a world where disadvantaged individuals might rent out their mental processing to make ends meet, new forms of inequality could emerge. The cognitive gig economy might empower people to earn money with their minds, but it could also commoditize human cognition, treating thoughts as labor units. If the “main products of the 21st-century economy” indeed become “bodies, brains and minds,” as Yuval Noah Harari suggests, society must grapple with how to value and protect those minds in the marketplace.

Final Thoughts

What steam power and electricity were to past centuries, neural interfaces might be to this one—a general-purpose technology that could transform economies and lives. For forward-looking investors and executives, I recommend keeping a close eye on your head because it may also be your next capital asset. If the next era becomes one of connected minds, those who can balance bold innovation with human-centered ethics might shape a future where brainpower for hire could truly benefit humanity.