Currently, scientists struggle to forecast volcano eruption events, as no universally reliable, real-time eruption forecasting framework is available. Instead, researchers often rely on retrospective analysis to evaluate eruptions. And although much has been learned from doing this, it can sometimes introduce biases, such as data snooping, hindsight reinterpretation, and post-eruption model adjustment.
As a potential remedy to this problem, a group of researchers working with the Geohazards Crisis Observatory have launched an ongoing experiment focused on developing a physics-based eruption forecasting framework. The findings are published on the arXiv preprint server.





