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How to Think Exponentially and Better Predict the Future

Reshaping how you think about the future:


“The future is widely misunderstood. Our forebears expected it to be pretty much like their present, which had been pretty much like their past.” –Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near

We humans aren’t great predictors of the future. For most of history, our experience has been “local and linear.” Not much change occurred generation to generation: We used the same tools, ate the same meals, lived in the same general place.

Toyota forms company to make technology simpler

Very nice goal to have “all things connected” in Toyota’s and Microsoft’s case is “Singularity” lite meaning physical structures are connected; however, bio connection does not exist (only consumer profile information is available and integrated). This could be considered an interim state for Singularity.


The company called Toyota Connected has a goal of simplifying technology so it’s easier to use, perhaps even getting rid of distracting and complicated touch screens that now are in most cars and replacing them with heads-up or voice-activated technology, said Zack Hicks, the company’s CEO who also is Toyota Motor America’s chief information officer. Like other automakers, Toyota Connected will research connecting cars to each other and to homes, as well as telematics features that learn and anticipate a driver’s habits. The company, like other automakers, will explore transmitting a driver’s health data to a doctor or driving patterns to an insurance company so people are insured based on where they travel, Toyota said.

Using machine learning to rationally design future electronics materials

Even if we don’t create a true AI for a thousand years, these algorithms, pared with our exponentially increasing computing power, could have much of the same effect on our civilization as the more traditional, AI-centric type Singularity. Very, very soon.


A schematic diagram of machine learning for materials discovery (credit: Chiho Kim, Ramprasad Lab, UConn)

Replacing inefficient experimentation, UConn researchers have used machine learning to systematically scan millions of theoretical compounds for qualities that would make better materials for solar cells, fibers, and computer chips.

Led by UConn materials scientist Ramamurthy ‘Rampi’ Ramprasad, the researchers set out to determine which polymer atomic configurations make a given polymer a good electrical conductor or insulator, for example.

A polymer is a large molecule made of many repeating building blocks. The most familiar example is plastics. What controls a polymer’s properties is mainly how the atoms in the polymer connect to each other. Polymers can also have diverse electronic properties. For example, they can be very good insulators or good conductors. And what controls all these properties is mainly how the atoms in the polymer connect to each other.

Will the End of Moore’s Law Halt Computing’s Exponential Rise?

“A common challenge to the ideas presented in this book is that these exponential trends must reach a limit, as exponential trends commonly do.” –Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near

Much of the future we envision today depends on the exponential progress of information technology, most popularly illustrated by Moore’s Law. Thanks to shrinking processors, computers have gone from plodding, room-sized monoliths to the quick devices in our pockets or on our wrists. Looking back, this accelerating progress is hard to miss—it’s been amazingly consistent for over five decades.

But how long will it continue?

Watch Monkeys Drive Wheelchairs With Just Their Thoughts

At this rate, we may see Ray Kurzweil’s vision of connected humans to the cloud and full singularity before 30 years.


Duke University scientists have given a pair of monkeys the ability to drive a wheelchair with their thoughts alone. The work is described in a paper recently published in the journal Scientific Reports and adds to a growing body of work in brain-machine interfaces aiming to return some freedom to the severely disabled.

Duke neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis and his team first began experimenting back in 2012, when they implanted hundreds of microfibers as thin as a human hair in the brains of two rhesus macaque monkeys. The fibers recorded cortical activity associated with “whole-body movement” and sent the signals to a computer.

monkeys-wheelchairs-thought-controlled-6To start, the monkeys sat in wheelchairs that were moved along various paths toward a bowl of grapes across the room. Their brain activity was read and decoded by a computer program and then associated with wheelchair commands.

NP-complete problem solved with biological motors

I am glad to see this article publish because it expresses well how technology and biological properties can be intertwined and advance collectively together. It will take this type of an approach to provide the foundation that is needed to enable the future visions that Kurzweil and others have shared around Singularity.

2 decades ago, Lucent experimented with the cells from fish to see how they could enable digital transmission through their experiments. They had some small successes; however, it never fully matured. Today, however, with Quantum we will finally see the advancements in technology, medicine, and science that many have only dreamed about or read from books or saw in movies.


Biological systems can explore every possible solution rapidly.

No Big Bang? Quantum equation predicts universe has no beginning

New equation proves no “Big Bang” theory and no beginning either as well as no singularity.


(Phys.org) —The universe may have existed forever, according to a new model that applies quantum correction terms to complement Einstein’s theory of general relativity. The model may also account for dark matter and dark energy, resolving multiple problems at once.

The widely accepted age of the , as estimated by , is 13.8 billion years. In the beginning, everything in existence is thought to have occupied a single infinitely dense point, or . Only after this point began to expand in a “Big Bang” did the universe officially begin.

Although the Big Bang singularity arises directly and unavoidably from the mathematics of general relativity, some scientists see it as problematic because the math can explain only what happened immediately after—not at or before—the singularity.

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Did You Know? The Future Is Better Than You Think!

A video about how fast technological progress is going, how much technology has improved the world and the potential for technology to solve our most pressing challenges. Inspired in part by the book Abundance by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler, and by the video “Shift Happens 3.0” (also known as “Did You Know”) by Karl Fisch and Scott McLeod: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY

Among the things mentioned are developments and possibilities within information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology and artificial intelligence. The video also touches upon how several of these developments are exponential, but it does not get into the realm of technological singularity and the thoughts of people such as Ray Kurzweil, which is the topic of some of my other videos.

The guy who is speaking at the end is Peter Diamandis. The whole talk can be seen here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KxckI8Ttpw

SOURCES AND JUSTIFICATION FOR CLAIMS
http://howisearth.wordpress.com/2012/08/12/did-you-know-the-…you-think/

MUSIC
“I can´t stop” (the title does not really come as a shock) by Flux Pavilion. Thank you Flux!

If you like it you could, if you want to, buy it here: http://itunes.apple.com/gb/album/i-cant-stop-single/id510073535 or some other place.

General Relativity Might Be No Match for a Five-Dimensional Black Hole

We don’t live in a world that’s pinning the survival of humanity of Matthew McConaughey’s shoulders, but if it turns out the plot of the 2014 film Interstellar is true, then we live in a world with at least five dimensions. And that would mean that a ring-shaped black hole would, as scientists recently demonstrated, “break down” Einstein’s general theory of relativity. (And to think, the man was just coming off a phenomenal week.)

In a study published in Physical Review Letters, researchers from the UK simulated a black hole in a “5-D” universe shaped like a thin ring (which were first posited by theoretical physicists in 2002). In this universe, the black hole would bulge strangely, with stringy connections that become thinner as time passes. Eventually, those strings pinch off like budding bacteria or water drops off a stream and form miniature black holes of their own.

This is wicked weird stuff, but we haven’t even touched on the most bizarre part. A black hole like this leads to what physicists call a “naked singularity,” where the equations that support general relativity — a foundational block of modern physics — stop making sense.

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