Scientists at Delft University of Technology, in collaboration with Waymo, have developed a new model that predicts with high accuracy how human drivers respond to dangerous traffic situations. For the first time, different types of collision avoidance behavior are combined into a single model. The results will be published on 10 June in Nature Communications. Waymo is already using the model to compare the performance of its autonomous vehicles with that of human drivers.

When a leading vehicle suddenly brakes or an oncoming car unexpectedly enters your lane, you have only fractions of a second to decide whether to brake, swerve or both. “Existing models typically describe only part of this process, such as reaction time or steering behavior,” says Arkady Zgonnikov, assistant professor at Delft University of Technology (The Netherlands). “Our new model brings all these components together.”

The model integrates perception, decision-making and execution into a single coherent framework. As a result, it can detect when a situation becomes dangerous, predict how the traffic situation is likely to evolve and simultaneously determine the most effective avoidance strategy.