We’ve yet to see a falling piece of space debris strike an airplane, but if it happens, the consequences would almost certainly be catastrophic – and according to a new study, the danger posed to planes is only rising.

The researchers behind the study, from the University of British Columbia in Canada, looked at worldwide flight data to model the distribution of planes in the sky, then compared this to records of uncontrolled rocket body reentries.

The increasing risk is also being driven in part by the mass deployment of satellites, like SpaceX’s Starlink, which will eventually reenter our airspace.