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LIFEBOAT FOUNDATION SPECIAL REPORT
LIFEBOAT FOUNDATION SPECIAL REPORT
TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION
By Lifeboat Foundation Scientific Advisory Board member José Luis
Cordeiro.
Print report!
The universe began with a bang.
OVERVIEW
Since the Big Bang, the universe has been in constant evolution and
continuous transformation. First there were physical and chemical
processes, then biological evolution, and finally now technological
evolution. As we begin to ride the wave into human redesign, the
destination is still largely unknown but the opportunities are almost
limitless.
Biological evolution continues but it is just too slow to
achieve the goals now possible thanks to technological evolution.
Natural selection with trial and error can now be substituted by
technical selection with engineering design. Humanity's monopoly as the
only advanced sentient life form on the planet will soon come to an
end, supplemented by a number of posthuman incarnations. Moreover, how
we re-engineer ourselves could fundamentally change the ways in which
our society functions, and raise crucial questions about our identities
and moral status as human beings.
TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION
The famous astronomer and astrobiologist Carl Sagan popularized
the concept of a Cosmic Calendar about three decades ago. In his 1977
book,
The Dragons of Eden: Speculations on the Evolution of Human
Intelligence, Sagan wrote a timeline for the universe, starting
with
the Big Bang about 15 billion years ago. Today, we think that it all
started about 13.7 billion years back, and we keep updating and
improving our knowledge of life, the universe and everything. In his
Cosmic Calendar, with each month representing slightly over one billion
years, Sagan dated the major events during the first 11 months of the
cosmic year.
Cosmic Calendar: January - November
| Big Bang | | January | 1 |
| Origin of Milky Way Galaxy | | May | 1 |
| Origin of the solar system | | September | 9 |
| Formation of the Earth | | September | 14 |
| Origin of life on
Earth | ~ | September | 25 |
| Formation of the oldest rocks known on
Earth | | October | 2 |
| Date of oldest fossils (bacteria and blue-green
algae) | | October | 9 |
| Invention of sex (by
microorganisms) | ~ | November | 1 |
| Oldest fossil photosynthetic
plants | | November | 12 |
| Eukaryotes (first cells with nuclei) flourish | | November | 15 |
Source: J.L. Cordeiro based on C. Sagan (1977)
Interestingly enough, most of what we study in biological
evolution happened in the last month. In fact, Sagan wrote that the
first worms appeared on December 16, the invertebrates began to
flourish on the 17th, the trilobites boomed on the 18th, the first fish
and vertebrates appeared on the 19th, the plants colonized the land on
the 20th, the animals colonized the land on the 21st, the first
amphibians and first winged insects appeared on the 22nd, the first
trees and first reptiles evolved on the 23rd, the first dinosaurs
appeared on the 24th, the first mammals evolved on the 26th, the first
birds emerged on the 27th, the dinosaurs became extinct on the 28th,
the first primates appeared on the 29th and the frontal lobes evolved
in the brains of primates and the first hominids appeared on the 30th.
Basically, humans are just the new kids in the block, and only evolved
late at night on the last day of this Cosmic Calendar.
Cosmic Calendar: December 31
| Origin of Proconsul and Ramapithecus, probable ancestors of
apes and
men | ~ | 1:30
p.m. |
| First humans | ~ | 10:30
p.m. |
| Widespread use of stone
tools | | 11:00
p.m. |
| Domestication of fire by Peking
man | | 11:46
p.m. |
| Beginning of most recent glacial
period | | 11:56
p.m. |
| Seafarers settle
Australia | | 11:58
p.m. |
| Extensive cave painting in
Europe | | 11:59
p.m. |
| Invention of agriculture | | 11:59:20
p.m. |
| Neolithic civilization; first cities | | 11:59:35
p.m. |
| First dynasties in Sumer, Ebla and Egypt; development of
astronomy | | 11:59:50 p.m. |
| Invention of the alphabet; Akkadian
Empire | | 11:59:51 p.m. |
| Hammurabic legal codes in Babylon; Middle Kingdom in
Egypt | | 11:59:52 p.m. |
| Bronze metallurgy; Mycenaean culture; Trojan War; Olmec
culture;
invention of the compass | | 11:59:53 p.m. |
| Iron metallurgy; First Assyrian Empire; Kingdom of Israel;
founding of
Carthage by Phoenicia | | 11:59:54 p.m. |
| Asokan India; Ch'in Dynasty China; Periclean Athens; birth of
Buddha | | 11:59:55 p.m. |
| Euclidean geometry; Archimedean physics; Ptolemaic astronomy;
Roman
Empire; birth of Christ | | 11:59:56 p.m. |
| Zero and decimals invented in Indian arithmetic; Rome falls;
Moslem
conquests | | 11:59:57 p.m. |
| Mayan civilization; Sung Dynasty China; Byzantine empire;
Mongol
invasion; Crusades | | 11:59:58 p.m. |
| Renaissance in Europe; voyages of discovery from Europe and
from Ming
Dynasty China; emergence of the experimental method in
science | | 11:59:59 p.m. |
| Widespread development of science and technology; emergence of global
culture; acquisition of the means of self-destruction of the human
species; first steps in spacecraft planetary exploration and the search
of extraterrestrial intelligence | | Now: The first
second of New
Year's Day |
Source: J.L. Cordeiro based on C. Sagan (1977)
The previous Cosmic Calendar is an excellent way to visualize
the acceleration of change and the continuous evolution of the
universe. Other authors have developed similar ideas to try to show the
rise of complexity in nature. For example, in 2005, astrophysicist Eric
Chaisson published his latest book,
Epic of Evolution: Seven Ages of the Cosmos, where he
describes the
formation of the universe through
the development of seven ages: matter, galaxies, stars, heavy elements,
planets, life, complex life, and society. Chaisson presents a valuable
survey of these fields and shows how combinations of simpler systems
transform into more complex systems, and he thus gives a glimpse of
what the future might bring.
Both Sagan and Chaisson wrote excellent overviews about
evolution, from its cosmic beginnings to the recent emergence of humans
and technology. However, a more futuristic look is given by futurist
and inventor Ray Kurzweil in his 2005 book:
The Singularity is Near:
When Humans Transcend Biology. Kurzweil talks about six epochs
with
increasing complexity and accumulated information
processing.
The Six Epochs of the Universe according to Kurzweil
| Epoch 1 | Physics and chemistry (information
in
atomic structures) |
| Epoch 2 | Biology (information in
DNA) |
| Epoch 3 | Brains (information in neural
patterns) |
| Epoch 4 | Technology (information in
hardware and
software designs) |
| Epoch 5 | Merger of technology and human
intelligence (the methods of
biology, including human intelligence, are integrated into the
exponentially expanding human technology base) |
| Epoch 6 | The universe wakes up (patterns of
matter and energy in the
universe become saturated with intelligent processes and
knowledge) |
Source: Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near, Viking,
2005
According to Kurzweil, we are entering Epoch 5 with an
accelerating rate of change. The major event of this merger of
technology and human intelligence will be the emergence of a
"technological singularity". Kurzweil believes that within a quarter
century, non-biological intelligence will match the range and subtlety
of human intelligence. It will then soar past it because of the
continuing acceleration of information-based technologies, as well as
the ability of machines to instantly share their
knowledge.
Eventually,
intelligent nanorobots will be deeply integrated in our bodies, our
brains, and our environment, overcoming pollution and poverty,
providing vastly extended longevity, full-immersion virtual reality
incorporating all of the senses, and vastly enhanced human
intelligence. The result will be an intimate merger between the
technology-creating species and the technological evolutionary process
it spawned.
Computer scientist and science fiction writer Vernor Vinge
first discussed this idea of a technological singularity in a now
classic 1993 paper, where he predicted:
"Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create
superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be
ended."
Other authors talk about such technological singularity as the
moment in time when artificial intelligence will overtake human
intelligence. Kurzweil has also proposed the "Law of Accelerating
Returns", as a generalization of Moore's law to describe an exponential
growth of technological progress. Moore's law deals with an exponential
growth pattern in the complexity of integrated semiconductor circuits
(see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Moore's Law. Source:
Intel.
Kurzweil extends Moore's law to include technologies from far before
the
integrated circuit to future forms of computation. Whenever a
technology approaches some kind of a barrier, he writes, a new
technology will be invented to allow us to cross that barrier. He
predicts that such paradigm shifts will become increasingly common,
leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a
rupture in the fabric of human history". He believes the "Law of
Accelerating Returns" implies that a technological singularity will
occur around 2045:
"An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological
change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear'
view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st
century-it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's
rate). The 'returns,' such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also
increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of
exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will
surpass human intelligence, leading to the Singularity
— technological
change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of
human history. The implications include the merger of biological and
non-biological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and
ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe
at the speed of light."
TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE
Futurists today have diverging views about the singularity:
some see it as a very likely scenario, while others believe that it is
more probable that there will never be any very sudden and dramatic
changes due to progress in artificial intelligence. However, most
futurists and scientists agree that there is an increasing rate of
technological change. In fact, the rapid emergence of new technologies
has generated scientific developments never dreamed of
before.
The expression "emerging technologies" is used to cover such
new and potentially powerful technologies as genetic engineering,
artificial intelligence, and nanotechnology. Although the exact
denotation of the expression is vague, various writers have identified
clusters of such technologies that they consider critical to humanity's
future. These proposed technology clusters are typically abbreviated by
such combinations of letters as NBIC, which stands for Nanotechnology,
Biotechnology, Information technology and Cognitive
science.
Various
other acronyms have been offered for essentially the same concept, such
as GNR (Genetics, Nanotechnology and Robotics) used by Kurzweil, while
others prefer NRG because it sounds similar to "energy". Journalist
Joel Garreau in
Radical Evolution uses GRIN, for Genetic, Robotic,
Information, and Nano processes, while author Douglas Mulhall in
Our
Molecular Future uses GRAIN, for Genetics, Robotics, Artificial
Intelligence, and Nanotechnology. Another acronym is BANG for Bits,
Atoms, Neurons, and Genes.
The first NBIC Conference for Improving Human Performance was
organized in 2003 by the NSF (National Science Foundation) and the DOC
(Department of Commerce). Since then, there have been many similar
gatherings, in the USA and overseas. The European Union has been
working on its own strategy towards converging technologies, and so
have been other countries in Asia, starting with Japan.
The idea of technological convergence is based on the merger of
different scientific disciplines thanks to the acceleration of change
on all NBIC fields. Nanotechnology deals with atoms and molecules,
biotechnology with genes and cells, infotechnology with bits and bytes,
and cognitive science with neurons and brains. These four fields are
converging thanks to the larger and faster information processing of
ever more powerful computers.
Figure 2: Technological Convergence NBIC. Source: J.L. Cordeiro based
on M.C. Roco and W.S. Bainbridge
(2003).
Experts from the four NBIC fields agree about the incredible
potential of technological evolution finally overtaking and directing
biological evolution. Bill Gates of Microsoft has stated that:
"I expect to see breathtaking advances in medicine over the next two
decades, and biotechnology researchers and companies will be at the
center of that progress. I'm a big believer in information
technology?but it is hard to argue that the emerging medical
revolution, spearheaded by the biotechnology industry, is any less
important to the future of humankind. It, too, will empower people and
raise the standard of living."
Larry Ellison of Oracle, Gates' chief rival in the software
industry, agrees: "If I were 21 years old, I probably wouldn't go into
computing. The computing industry is about to become boring". He
explains that: "I would go into genetic engineering." Biologist Craig
Venter has said that he spent 10 years reading the human genome, and
now he is planning to write new genomes. He wants to create completely
new forms of life, from scratch. Scientist and writer Gregory Stock
also believes that cloning, even though a fundamental step in
biotechnology, is just too simple and unexciting: "why copy old life
forms when we can now create new ones?"
Biological evolution allowed the appearance of human beings,
and many other species, through millions of years of natural selection
based on trials and errors. Now we can control biological evolution,
direct it and go beyond it. In fact, why stop evolution with
carbon-based life forms? Why not move into silicon-based life, among
many other possibilities? Robotics and artificial intelligence will
allow us to do just that.
Scientist Marvin Minsky, one of the fathers of artificial
intelligence at MIT, wrote a very famous 1994 article "Will robots
inherit the Earth?" in Scientific American, where he concludes: "Yes,
but they will be our children. We owe our minds to the deaths and lives
of all the creatures that were ever engaged in the struggle called
Evolution. Our job is to see that all this work shall not end up in
meaningless waste." Robotics expert Hans Moravec has written two books
about robots and our (their) future:
Mind Children in 1988 and
Robot in
1998. Moravec argues that robots will be our rightful descendants and
he explains several ways to "upload" a mind into a robot.
In England,
cybernetics professor Kevin Warwick has been implanting his own body
with several microchip devices and published in 2003 a book explaining
his experiments:
I, Cyborg. Warwick is a cybernetics pioneer who
claims
that: "I was born human. But this was an accident of fate — a
condition
merely of time and place. I believe it's something we have the power to
change... The future is out there; I am eager to see what it holds. I
want
to do something with my life: I want to be a cyborg."
As these authors and thinkers suggest, we need to start
preparing ourselves for the coming NBIC realities of technological
convergence, including robotics and artificial intelligence. Thanks to
technological evolution, humans will transcend our biological
limitations to become transhumans and eventually posthumans. To ease
this transition into a posthuman condition, we must ready ourselves for
the distinct possibility that the Earth, and other planets, will be
inherited by not just one but several forms of highly intelligent and
sentient life forms. The philosophy of Extropy (see Appendix 1) and
Transhumanism (see Appendix 2) explain these boundless possibilities
for future generations.
Humans are beginning to merge with
machines.
THE HUMAN SEED
Humans are not the end of evolution but just the beginning of a
better, conscious and technological evolution. The human body is a good
beginning, but we can certainly improve it, upgrade it, and transcend
it. Biological evolution through natural selection might be ending, but
technological evolution is only accelerating now. Technology, which
started to show dominance over biological processes some years ago, is
finally overtaking biology as the science of life.
As fuzzy logic theorist Bart Kosko has said: "biology is not
destiny. It was never more than tendency. It was just nature's first
quick and dirty way to compute with meat. Chips are destiny." And
photo-qubits might come soon after standard silicon-based chips, but
even that is only an intermediate means for eternal intelligent life in
the universe.
Humans are the first species which is conscious of its own
evolution and limitations, and humans will eventually transcend these
constraints to become posthumans. It might be a rapid process like
caterpillars becoming butterflies, as opposed to the slow evolutionary
passage from apes to humans. Future intelligent life forms might not
even resemble human beings at all, and carbon-based organisms will mix
with a plethora of other organisms. These posthumans will depend not
only on carbon-based systems but also on silicon and other "platforms"
which might be more convenient for different environments, like
traveling in outer space.
Eventually, all these new sentient life forms might be
connected to become a global brain, a large interplanetary brain, and
even a larger intergalactic brain. The ultimate scientific and
philosophical queries will continue to be tackled by these posthuman
life forms. Intelligence will keep on evolving and will try to answer
the old-age questions of life, the universe and everything. With ethics
and wisdom, humans will become posthumans, as science fiction writer
David Zindell suggested:
"What is a human being, then?"
"A seed."
"A ...seed?"
"An acorn that is unafraid to destroy itself in growing into a
tree."
APPENDIX 1: THE PRINCIPLES OF EXTROPY
Developed by Max More and Natasha Vita-More.
Perpetual Progress: Extropy means seeking more intelligence,
wisdom,
and effectiveness, an open-ended lifespan, and the removal of
political, cultural, biological, and psychological limits to continuing
development. Perpetually overcoming constraints on our progress and
possibilities as individuals, as organizations, and as a species.
Growing in healthy directions without bound.
Self-Transformation: Extropy means affirming continual ethical,
intellectual, and physical self-improvement, through critical and
creative thinking, perpetual learning, personal responsibility,
proactivity, and experimentation. Using technology — in the widest
sense to seek physiological and neurological augmentation along with
emotional and psychological refinement.
Practical Optimism: Extropy means fueling action with positive
expectations - individuals and organizations being tirelessly
proactive. Adopting a rational, action-based optimism or "proaction",
in place of both blind faith and stagnant pessimism.
Intelligent Technology: Extropy means designing and managing
technologies not as ends in themselves but as effective means for
improving life. Applying science and technology creatively and
courageously to transcend "natural" but harmful, confining qualities
derived from our biological heritage, culture, and
environment.
Open Society — information and democracy: Extropy means
supporting
social orders that foster freedom of communication, freedom of action,
experimentation, innovation, questioning, and learning. Opposing
authoritarian social control and unnecessary hierarchy and favoring the
rule of law and decentralization of power and responsibility.
Preferring bargaining over battling, exchange over extortion, and
communication over compulsion. Openness to improvement rather than a
static utopia. Extropia ("ever-receding stretch goals for society")
over utopia ("no place").
Self-Direction: Extropy means valuing independent thinking,
individual
freedom, personal responsibility, self-direction, self-respect, and a
parallel respect for others.
Rational Thinking: Extropy means favoring reason over blind
faith and
questioning over dogma. It means understanding, experimenting,
learning, challenging, and innovating rather than clinging to
beliefs.
APPENDIX 2: THE TRANSHUMANIST DECLARATION
Developed by the World Transhumanist Association.
(1) Humanity will be radically changed by technology in the future. We
foresee the feasibility of redesigning the human condition, including
such parameters as the inevitability of aging, limitations on human and
artificial intellects, unchosen psychology, suffering, and our
confinement to the planet earth.
(2) Systematic research should be put into understanding these coming
developments and their long-term consequences.
(3) Transhumanists generally think that by being open and
embracing of
new technology we have a better chance of turning it to our advantage
than if we try to ban or prohibit it.
(4) Transhumanists advocate the moral right for those who so wish to
use technology to extend their mental and physical (including
reproductive) capacities and to improve their control over their own
lives. We seek personal growth beyond our current biological
limitations.
(5) In planning for the future, it is mandatory to take into account
the prospect of dramatic progress in technological capabilities. It
would be tragic if the potential benefits failed to materialize because
of technophobia and unnecessary prohibitions. On the other hand, it
would also be tragic if intelligent life went extinct because of some
disaster or war involving advanced technologies.
(6) We need to create forums where people can rationally debate what
needs to be done and a social order where responsible decisions can be
implemented.
(7) Transhumanism advocates the well-being of all sentience (whether in
artificial intellects, humans, posthumans, or non-human animals) and
encompasses many principles of modern humanism. Transhumanism does not
support any particular party, politician or political
platform.
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