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LIFEBOAT FOUNDATION SPECIAL REPORT
LIFEBOAT FOUNDATION SPECIAL REPORT
NEUROTECHNOLOGY AND SOCIETY (2010-2060)
By Lifeboat Foundation Scientific Advisory Board member Zack Lynch.
Print report!
OVERVIEW
Society shapes and is shaped by advancing technology. To illuminate the
important societal implications of the NBIC
(nano-bio-info-cogno)
convergence it is critical to place it within a broad historical
context. History sharpens unique issues that require attention versus
ones that have more obvious trajectories. By viewing history as a series
of techno-economic waves with accompanying socio-political responses, it
is possible to begin to understand how NBIC technologies will have an
impact on society.
WAVES OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC
CHANGE
Since the time of the Industrial Revolution there has been a relatively
consistent pattern of 50-year waves of techno-economic change. We are
currently nearing the end of the fifth wave of information technology
diffusion, while a sixth wave is emerging with converging advancements
across the NBIC (nano-bio-info-cogno) space, making possible
neurotechnology, the set of tools that can influence the human central
nervous system, especially the brain.
Each wave consists of a new group of technologies that make it possible
to solve problems once thought intractable. The first wave, the water
mechanization wave (1770-1830) in England, transformed productivity by
replacing handcrafted production with water-powered
"machine-o-facture".
The second wave (1820-1880), powered by a massive iron railroad
build-out, accelerated the distribution of goods and services to distant
markets. The electrification wave (1870-1920) made possible new metal
alloys that created the foundation of the modern city. The development
of skyscrapers, electric elevators, light bulbs, telephones, and subways
were all a result of the new electricity infrastructure. At the same
time, new techniques for producing inexpensive steel emerged,
revamping the railroad systems, and making large-scale construction
projects possible. The fourth wave (1910-1970), ushered in by
inexpensive oil, "motorized" the industrial economy, making the
inexpensive transportation of goods and services available to the
masses.
The most recent wave, the information technology wave (1960-2020), has
made it possible to collect, analyze, and disseminate data, transforming
our ability to track and respond to an ever-changing world. Driven by
the microprocessor's capacity to compute and communicate data at
increasingly exponential rates, the current wave is the primary
generator of economic and social change today.
The nascent neurotechnology wave (2010-2060) is being accelerated by the
development of nanobiochips and brain-imaging technologies that will
make biological and neurological analysis accurate and inexpensive.
Nanobiochips that can perform the basic bio-analysis functions (genomic,
proteomic, biosimulation, and microfluidics) at a low cost will
transform neurological analysis in a very similar fashion as the
microprocessor did for data. Nano-imaging techniques will also play a
vital role in making the analysis of neuro-molecular level events
possible. When data from advanced biochips and brain imaging are
combined they will accelerate the development of neurotechnology, the
set of tools that can influence the human central nervous system,
especially the brain. Neurotechnology will be used for therapeutic ends
and to enable people to consciously improve emotional stability, enhance
cognitive clarity, and extend sensory experiences.
Techno-economic waves have pervasive effects throughout the economy and
society. New low-cost inputs create new product sectors. They shift
competitive behavior across the economy, as older sectors reinterpret
how they create value. New low-cost inputs become driving
sectors in
their own right (e.g., canals, coal, electricity, oil, microchips,
biochips). When combined with complementary technologies, each
new
low-cost input stimulates the development of new sectors (e.g.,
cotton
textiles, railroads, electric products, automobiles, computers,
neurofinance). Technological waves, because they embody a major
jump up
in productivity, open up an unusually wide range of investment and
profit opportunities, leading to sustained rates of economic growth.
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Table 1. Six long waves of techno-economical
development |
| Long Wave | Years | New Inputs | Driving
Sector | New Sectors |
| Mechanization | 1770-1830 | Canals,
water
power | Agriculture, cotton spinning | Iron tools, canal
transportation |
| Railroadization | 1820-1880 | Coal,
iron, steam
power | Railroads, locomotives, machine tools | Steam
shipping, telegraphy |
| Electrification | 1870-1920 | Electricity,
steel,
copper | Steel products, electricity | Construction,
precision machine tools |
| Motorization | 1910-1970 | Oil | Automobile,
oil refining | Aircraft, construction, services |
| Information | 1960-2020 | Microprocessor | Microchips,
computers | Networking, global finance, e-commerce |
| Neurotechnology | 2010-2060 | Biochip,
brain
imaging, ??? | Biotechnology,
nanotechnology | Neuroceuticals, bio-education |
NEUROTECHNOLOGY
Like any new technology, neurotechnology represents both promises and
problems. On the upside, neurotechnology represents new cures for mental
illness, new opportunities for economic growth and a potential flowering
of artistic expression. These benefits are countered by the potential
use of neurotechnology for coercive purposes or its use as neuroweapons
that can selectively erase memories. The diffusion of the
neurotechnology will have an impact on businesses, politics and human
culture in the following ways:
New Industries: As brain imaging advances,
neuromarketing will become a
significant growth sector as the trillion-per-year advertising and
marketing industries leverage brain scanning technology to better
understand how and why people react to different market
campaigns.
Neurotechnology will also have an impact on education. As more people
live longer and global competition intensifies, people will need to
learn new skills throughout their lives. Regulated neuroceuticals
represent the tools workers will use to succeed at continuous education.
Adult "neuroeducation" will emerge as a significant industry, teaching
individuals how to leverage neuroceuticals to acquire knowledge faster.
Using cogniceuticals to increase memory retention, emoticeuticals to
decrease stress, and sensoceuticals to add a meaningful pleasure
gradient, neuroeducation will allow people to acquire and retain
information faster. Imagine learning Arabic in one year rather than ten,
or calculus in eight weeks.
New Products: For example, neuroceuticals that
can temporarily improve
different aspects of mental health will become possible. Unlike today's
psychopharmaceuticals, neuroceuticals are neuromodulators that have high
efficacy and negligible side effects. By being able to target multiple
subreceptors in specific neural circuits, neuroceuticals will create the
possibility for dynamic intracellular regulation of an individual's
neurochemistry. Neuroceuticals will be used for therapy and improvement.
Neuroceuticals can be categorized into three broad groups —
cogniceuticals that focus on decision-making, learning,
attention, and
memory processes; emoticeuticals that influence feelings, moods,
motivation, and awareness; and sensoceuticals that can restore
and
extend the capacity of our senses, allowing people to see, smell, taste,
and hear in different ways.
Competitive Advantage: Mental health is the
ultimate competitive weapon.
Mental health underpins communication, creativity and employee
productivity. Individuals who use neurotechnology to understand how
their emotions affect their financial decisions will become more
productive and will attain neurocompetitive advantage.
Neurotechnology-enabled traders will be equipped with emotional
forecasting systems that provide them with real-time neurofeedback on
their expected emotional bias for a given trade. To further reduce
forecasting error, hormone-triggered emoticeuticals will keep traders
from entering "hot" states, where they are known to make less accurate
decisions. While some countries may choose to ban them,
performance-enabling neuroceuticals will emerge as significant
productivity tools.
Public Policy: Neuroethicists are already
confronting issues of brain
privacy and cognitive liberty. As the competitive edge provided by
neurotechnology becomes apparent, the ethical debate will evolve into a
discussion of the right to enable individuals to use these new tools to
improve themselves vs. uneven access to what others will describe as
unfair performance improvement. In the legislative arena the competitive
necessity of using these new tools will cause great concern over whether
or not they will be required in order to just compete in tomorrow's
global economy.
Mental Health: Today, five of the ten leading
causes of disability
worldwide—major depression, schizophrenia, bipolar disorders, substance
abuse, and obsessive-compulsive disorders—are mental issues. These
problems are as relevant in developing countries as they are in rich
ones. And all predictions point toward a dramatic increase in mental
illnesses as people live longer.
New treatments for mental disorders are driving neurotechnology's early
development. By 2020, biochips will have radically altered the drug
development process, reducing the time to develop new therapies from 15
to 2 years while slashing the cost of drug development from $800 million
to $10 million. In addition, entirely novel ways to treat disease at the
molecular level will extend life expectancy and improve mental health.
New Behaviors: Because our mental perspective slants our
thinking,
self-reflection and recollection of events, even a slight shift in human
perception, will alter how people learn, feel, and react to personal
problems, economic crises, and cultural rhetoric. When humans can better
control their emotions, how will this affect personal relationships,
political opinion and cultural beliefs? When we can enhance memory
recall and accelerate learning, how will this influence competitive
advantage in the workplace? As we can safely extend our sense of sight,
hearing and taste, what might this mean for artistic exploration and
human happiness?
Patterns in the Location of Production: India
and China will likely
develop regional clusters of neurotechnology firms as political and
cultural views on human testing create the necessary conditions for
technological experimentation and development.
CONCLUSION
By viewing recent history as a series of techno-economic waves ushered
in by a new low-cost input, it is possible to see that neurotechnology
will lead to substantial economic, political, and social change.
Building on advances in brain science and biotechnology,
neurotechnology, the set of tools that influence the human brain, will
allow people to experience life in ways that are currently unattainable.
Neurotechnology will enable people to consciously improve emotional
stability, enhance cognitive clarity, and extend sensory experiences. As
people begin to experience life less constrained by one's evolutionarily
influenced brain chemistry, neurotechnology will give rise to a new type
of human society, a post-industrial, post-informational, neurosociety.
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