Lifeboat Foundation Existential Threats Outlook

Lifeboat Foundation
Existential Threats Outlook (ETO)

Idea by Philippe Van Nedervelde. Last updated January 23, 2007.

Also view the global incident map displaying terrorist acts, suspicious activity, and general terrorism news.

Present chart lists occurences of existential threats which — unless something is done about them — will kill the human race to the last individual. Note that this list only includes occurences which do not leave a single human being alive. Occurrences which somehow leave a large enough group of humans alive with which humanity can be repopulated are explicitly not included here.

The threats are ranked by the probability of their an occurrence within the next 25 years. The probabilities are calculated using scientifically produced statistics relevant to each risk. The probabilities are recalculated on a regular basis to reflect all significant changes relevant to each risk. Such changes include better scientific data; new scientific discoveries; major international political events etc.

The links embedded in the names of threats link to pages explaining the threat question in detail as well as a discussion of possible countermeasures addressing that particular threat as proposed by the Lifeboat Foundation. The link embedded in each probability links to a page providing the statistics relevant to that risk plus the mathematical method used to produce the calculated probability for the risk in question.

We strongly invite and encourage anyone — especially scientists — to bring to our attention any relevant data which we may not yet have seen, as well as suggest improvements to our probability calculation methods.

Existential Risk	Prob. of occurring within next 25 years
Mankind-unfriendly AI	.060
Malicious Nanobotic Ecophagy	.053
Gamma-ray Burst	.049
Global Thermonuclear War	.032
Universe-simulation Computation Stop	.029
Malicious Global Pandemic / Bioweapon Attack	.0021
Deux Ex Machina	.0015
Particle Accelerator Accident	.00077
Anti-matter Bomb Black Hole	.00032
Impact by Asteroid or Comet	.000083
Extermination by Alien Civilization	.000036
Catastrophic Climate Collapse	.0000012
Magnetic Pole Reversal	.00000023
Supervolcano Eruption	.000000034
Heat Death of Universe	TBD
Absorption by Rogue Black Hole	TBD
Solar Mega-flares	TBD
Vacuum Collapse	TBD
Neurotropic Attack / Collapse	TBD

COLOR-CODING KEY

High probability & occurring relatively soon (i.e. possibly in your lifetime).

Medium probability & occurring in the Medium term (i.e. in your lifetime or that of your kids).

Low probability & occurring in the long-term (i.e. relevant to future generations... if we survive to see them emerge).