{"id":774,"date":"2010-03-23T02:59:10","date_gmt":"2010-03-23T09:59:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/?p=774"},"modified":"2010-04-19T03:16:42","modified_gmt":"2010-04-19T10:16:42","slug":"risk-intelligence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/risk-intelligence","title":{"rendered":"Risk intelligence"},"content":{"rendered":"

A few months ago, my friend Benjamin Jakobus and I created an online \u201crisk intelligence\u201d test at http:\/\/www.projectionpoint.com\/<\/a><\/a>. It consists of fifty statements about science, history, geography, and so on, and your task is to say how likely you think it is that each of these statements is true. We calculate your risk intelligence quotient (RQ) on the basis of your estimates. So far, over 30,000 people have taken our test, and we\u2019re currently writing up the results for some peer-reviewed journals.<\/p>\n

Now we want to take things a step further, and see whether our measure correlates with the ability to make accurate estimates of future events. To this end we\u2019ve created a \u201cprediction game\u201d at http:\/\/www.projectionpoint.com\/prediction_game.php<\/a><\/a>. The basic idea is the same; we provide you with a bunch of statements, and your task is to say how likely you think it is that each one is true. The difference is that these statements refer not to known facts, but to future events. Unlike the first test, nobody knows whether these statements are true or false yet. For most of them, we won\u2019t know until the end of the year 2010.<\/p>\n

For example, how likely do you think it is that this year will be the hottest on record? If you think this is very unlikely you might select the 10% category. If you think it is quite likely, but not very likely, you might put the chances at 60% or 70%. Selecting the 50% category would mean that you had no idea how likely it is.<\/p>\n

This is ongoing research, so please feel free to comment, criticise or make suggestions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A few months ago, my friend Benjamin Jakobus and I created an online \u201crisk intelligence\u201d test at http:\/\/www.projectionpoint.com\/. It consists of fifty statements about science, history, geography, and so on, and your task is to say how likely you think it is that each of these statements is true. We calculate your risk intelligence quotient [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":104,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,46,20,5,31,10],"tags":[100],"class_list":["post-774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-education","category-events","category-futurism","category-geopolitics","category-policy","category-polls","tag-risks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/774","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/104"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=774"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/774\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}