{"id":26542,"date":"2016-06-06T21:32:44","date_gmt":"2016-06-07T04:32:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/2016\/06\/non-experts-typically-better-at-forecasting-future-than-experts"},"modified":"2017-06-04T19:57:14","modified_gmt":"2017-06-05T02:57:14","slug":"non-experts-typically-better-at-forecasting-future-than-experts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/2016\/06\/non-experts-typically-better-at-forecasting-future-than-experts","title":{"rendered":"Non-experts typically better at forecasting future than experts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"aligncenter blog-photo\" href=\"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog.images\/non-experts-typically-better-at-forecasting-future-than-experts.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Interesting twist; wonder how many tax dollars paid for the experts?<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>There is a bitter truth for economists, as well as professionals in other areas. Non-experts are typically better at forecasting future trends than experts.<\/p>\n<p>It has been argued that economists should be historians rather than meteorologists and many years before the recent economic crash,<b> John Kenneth Galbraith, the late Harvard economist<\/b>, joked: \u201cThe only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><b>Justin Wolfers<\/b>, an economist, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/06\/04\/upshot\/the-jobs-report-is-not-quite-as-terrible-as-it-looks.html\"> wrote last Friday in the New York Times<\/a> on the May US jobs report which showed job creation falling to a net 38,000 in the month:<\/p>\n<p><!-- Link: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.finfacts.ie\/Irish_finance_news\/articleDetail.php?Non-experts-typically-better-at-forecasting-future-than-experts-643\">http:\/\/www.finfacts.ie\/Irish_finance_news\/articleDetail.php?...xperts-643<\/a> --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Interesting twist; wonder how many tax dollars paid for the experts? There is a bitter truth for economists, as well as professionals in other areas. Non-experts are typically better at forecasting future trends than experts. It has been argued that economists should be historians rather than meteorologists and many years before the recent economic crash, [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":395,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39,1878],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-employment"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26542","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/395"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26542"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26542\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":67299,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26542\/revisions\/67299"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26542"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26542"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26542"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}