{"id":242534,"date":"2026-08-11T05:31:25","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T10:31:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/2026\/08\/how-rare-events-remember"},"modified":"2026-08-11T05:31:25","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T10:31:25","slug":"how-rare-events-remember","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/2026\/08\/how-rare-events-remember","title":{"rendered":"How Rare Events Remember"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding-right: 20px\"><a class=\"aligncenter blog-photo\" href=\"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog.images\/how-rare-events-remember.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>A new theory of rare recurrent events dispenses with the simplifying assumption that recent events lack memory of previous ones.<\/p>\n<p>Recurring earthquakes, stock-market crashes, catastrophic floods, and other rare events are statistically unlikely but significantly impactful. Their prediction is commonly based on the Arrhenius-Kramers paradigm [1], one of the most broadly applied frameworks in statistical physics. Implicit in this formalism are two strong universal features. First, the distribution of times to reach a rare event is exponential and independent of initial conditions, implying no correlation exists between successive rare events. Second, the mean waiting time increases exponentially with the size of the energy barrier (or effective energy) to be overcome. Despite its applicability, nature sometimes defies the Arrhenius-Kramers paradigm. Proteins can cross energy barriers with nonexponential kinetics [2], rainfall extremes can cluster in time [3] (Fig.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A new theory of rare recurrent events dispenses with the simplifying assumption that recent events lack memory of previous ones. Recurring earthquakes, stock-market crashes, catastrophic floods, and other rare events are statistically unlikely but significantly impactful. Their prediction is commonly based on the Arrhenius-Kramers paradigm [1], one of the most broadly applied frameworks in statistical [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":427,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1497,219],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-242534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy","category-physics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/427"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=242534"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242534\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=242534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=242534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=242534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}