{"id":202996,"date":"2025-01-03T00:24:47","date_gmt":"2025-01-03T06:24:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/2025\/01\/whats-the-short-timeline-plan"},"modified":"2025-01-03T00:24:47","modified_gmt":"2025-01-03T06:24:47","slug":"whats-the-short-timeline-plan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/2025\/01\/whats-the-short-timeline-plan","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s the short timeline plan?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"aligncenter blog-photo\" href=\"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog.images\/whats-the-short-timeline-plan.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><i>This is a low-effort post. I mostly want to get other people\u2019s takes and express concern about the lack of detailed and publicly available plans so far. This post reflects my personal opinion and not necessarily that of other members of Apollo Research. I\u2019d like to thank Ryan Greenblatt, Bronson Schoen, Josh Clymer, Buck Shlegeris, Dan Braun, Mikita Balesni, J\u00e9r\u00e9my Scheurer, and Cody Rushing for comments and discussion.<\/i><\/p>\n<p>I think short timelines, e.g. AIs that can replace a top researcher at an AGI lab <i>without<\/i> losses in capabilities by 2027, are plausible. Some people have posted ideas on what a reasonable plan to reduce AI risk for such timelines might look like (e.g. Sam Bowman\u2019s checklist, or Holden Karnofsky\u2019s list in his 2022 nearcast), but I find them insufficient for the magnitude of the stakes (to be clear, I don\u2019t think these example lists were intended to be an extensive plan).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is a low-effort post. I mostly want to get other people\u2019s takes and express concern about the lack of detailed and publicly available plans so far. This post reflects my personal opinion and not necessarily that of other members of Apollo Research. I\u2019d like to thank Ryan Greenblatt, Bronson Schoen, Josh Clymer, Buck Shlegeris, [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":715,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-202996","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-robotics-ai"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202996","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/715"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=202996"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202996\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=202996"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=202996"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=202996"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}