{"id":152749,"date":"2022-12-13T15:27:24","date_gmt":"2022-12-13T21:27:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/2022\/12\/the-odds-of-life-and-intelligence"},"modified":"2022-12-13T15:27:24","modified_gmt":"2022-12-13T21:27:24","slug":"the-odds-of-life-and-intelligence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/2022\/12\/the-odds-of-life-and-intelligence","title":{"rendered":"The Odds of Life and Intelligence"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Click on photo to start video.<\/center><\/p>\n

If we re-ran Earth\u2019s clock, would life arise again? Would another civilization eventually evolve? Astrobiology is faced with trying to contextualize our place in the Universe using just a single data point. But even a single data point contains information. The key to unlocking it is a careful understanding of the selection biases at play and intricacies of Bayesian statistics. Today, we\u2019re thrilled to present to you our explainer video of a new research paper led by Prof David Kipping that provides a direct quantification of the odds of life and intelligence on Earth-like worlds, based on our own chronology. Presented & Written by Prof. David Kipping.<\/p>\n

This video is based on research conducted at the Cool Worlds Lab at Columbia University, New York. You can now support our research program directly here: https:\/\/www.coolworldslab.com\/support<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Previous episodes to catch up on:
\u25ba \u201cWatching the End of the World\u201d: https:\/\/youtu.be\/p9e8qNNe3L0<\/a>
\u25ba \u201cWhy We Could Be Alone\u201d: https:\/\/youtu.be\/PqEmYU8Y_rI<\/a><\/p>\n

References:
\u25ba Kipping, D. 2020, \u201cAn Objective Bayesian Analysis of Life\u2019s Early Start and Our Late Arrival\u201d, PNAS: https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/early\/2020\/05\/12\/1921655117<\/a>
\u25ba Spiegel, D. & Turner, E., 2011, \u201cBayesian analysis of the astrobiological implications of life\u2019s early emergence on Earth\u201d, PNAS 109,395 https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/1107.3835<\/a>
\u25ba Carter, B. 2007, \u201cFive or six step scenario for evolution?\u201d, Int. J. Astrobiology 7,177 : https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/0711.1985<\/a>
\u25ba O\u2019Malley-James, J. et al. 2013, \u201cSwansong biospheres: refuges for life and novel microbial biospheres on terrestrial planets near the end of their habitable lifetimes\u201d Int. J. Astrobiology 12, 99: https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/1210.5721<\/a>
\u25ba Bell, E. et al., 2015, \u201cPotentially biogenic carbon preserved in a 4.1 billion-year-old zircon\u201d, PNAS 112, 14518: https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/112\/47\/14518<\/a>
\u25ba Smith, H. & Szathm\u00e1ry, E. 1995, \u201cThe Major Transitions in Evolution\u201d, Oxford, England: Oxford University Press.
\u25ba Schopf, W. et al., 2018, \u201cSIMS analyses of the oldest known assemblage of microfossils document their taxon-correlated carbon isotope compositions\u201d, PNAS 115, 53: https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/115\/1\/53<\/a><\/p>\n

Video materials & graphics used:
\u25ba Berkeley Lab\/Sloan Sky Digital Survey: https:\/\/youtu.be\/08LBltePDZw<\/a>.
\u25ba Life Beyond by melodysheep: https:\/\/youtu.be\/SUelbSa-OkA<\/a>
\u25ba K2-18b animation by ESA\/Hubble, M. Kornmesser: https:\/\/www.spacetelescope.org\/videos\/heic1916b\/<\/a>
\u25ba Earth 4k by NASA\/ESA\/M.Kornmesser: https:\/\/www.eso.org\/public\/videos\/earth_2015_4k\/<\/a>
https:\/\/youtu.be\/VhowJ3OZ2BM<\/a>
\u25ba Earth timelapse from NASA DSCOVR EPIC: https:\/\/epic.gsfc.nasa.gov<\/a>.
\u25ba Animation of GJ1214b by ESO\/L. Cal\u00e7ada: https:\/\/www.eso.org\/public\/videos\/eso1047a\/<\/a>
\u25ba Roulette table by steveh552: https:\/\/youtu.be\/7VtnB8tS2Ys<\/a>.
\u25ba Sky timelapse by National Geographic: https:\/\/youtu.be\/xTvvQ65jWVs<\/a>.
\u25ba Milky Way animation by Stefan Payne-Wardenaar: https:\/\/vimeo.com\/330625918<\/a>
\u25ba Outro by Carl Sagan from his book Pale Blue Dot.
\u25ba Thumbnail image licensed through StockFresh.com<\/a>, image #8872987 by RAStudio.<\/p>\n

Movies\/TV scenes used:
\u25ba Agora (2009)\/Focus Features.
\u25ba The Martian (2015)\/20th Century Fox.
\u25ba Noah (2014)\/Paramount Pictures.<\/p>\n

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Read more<\/div>\n

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Click on photo to start video. If we re-ran Earth\u2019s clock, would life arise again? Would another civilization eventually evolve? Astrobiology is faced with trying to contextualize our place in the Universe using just a single data point. But even a single data point contains information. The key to unlocking it is a careful understanding [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":661,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1527,385],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-152749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-alien-life","category-evolution"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152749","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/661"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=152749"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152749\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=152749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=152749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lifeboat.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=152749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}