Rufo Guerreschi.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/rufoguerreschi.

Coalition for a Baruch Plan for AI
https://www.cbpai.org/

0:00 Intro.
0:21 Rufo Guerreschi.
0:28 Contents.
0:41 Part 1: Why we have a governance problem.
1:18 From e-democracy to cybersecurity.
2:42 Snowden showed that international standards were needed.
3:55 Taking the needs of intelligence agencies into account.
4:24 ChatGPT was a wake up moment for privacy.
5:08 Living in Geneva to interface with states.
5:57 Decision making is high up in government.
6:26 Coalition for a Baruch plan for AI
7:12 Parallels to organizations to manage nuclear safety.
8:11 Hidden coordination between intelligence agencies.
8:57 Intergovernmental treaties are not tight.
10:19 The original Baruch plan in 1946
11:28 Why the original Baruch plan did not succeed.
12:27 We almost had a different international structure.
12:54 A global monopoly on violence.
14:04 Could expand to other weapons.
14:39 AI is a second opportunity for global governance.
15:19 After Soviet tests, there was no secret to keep.
16:22 Proliferation risk of AI tech is much greater?
17:44 Scale and timeline of AI risk.
19:04 Capabilities of security agencies.
20:02 Internal capabilities of leading AI labs.
20:58 Governments care about impactful technologies.
22:06 Government compute, risk, other capabilities.
23:05 Are domestic labs outside their jurisdiction?
23:41 What are the timelines where change is required?
24:54 Scientists, Musk, Amodei.
26:24 Recursive self improvement and loss of control.
27:22 A grand gamble, the rosy perspective of CEOs.
28:20 CEOs can’t really say anything else.
28:59 Altman, Trump, Softbank pursuing superintelligence.
30:01 Superintelligence is clearly defined by Nick Bostrom.
30:52 Explain to people what “superintelligence” means.
31:32 Jobs created by Stargate project?
32:14 Will centralize power.
33:33 Sharing of the benefits needs to be ensured.
34:26 We are running out of time.
35:27 Conditional treaty idea.
36:34 Part 2: We can do this without a global dictatorship.
36:44 Dictatorship concerns are very reasonable.
37:19 Global power is already highly concentrated.
38:13 We are already in a surveillance world.
39:18 Affects influential people especially.
40:13 Surveillance is largely unaccountable.
41:35 Why did this machinery of surveillance evolve?
42:34 Shadow activities.
43:37 Choice of safety vs liberty (privacy)
44:26 How can this dichotomy be rephrased?
45:23 Revisit supply chains and lawful access.
46:37 Why the government broke all security at all levels.
47:17 The encryption wars and export controls.
48:16 Front door mechanism replaced by back door.
49:21 The world we could live in.
50:03 What would responding to requests look like?
50:50 Apple may be leaving “bug doors” intentionally.
52:23 Apple under same constraints as government.
52:51 There are backdoors everywhere.
53:45 China and the US need to both trust AI tech.
55:10 Technical debt of past unsolved problems.
55:53 Actually a governance debt (social-technical)
56:38 Provably safe or guaranteed safe AI
57:19 Requirement: Governance plus lawful access.
58:46 Tor, Signal, etc are often wishful thinking.
59:26 Can restructure incentives.
59:51 Restrict proliferation without dragnet?
1:00:36 Physical plus focused surveillance.
1:02:21 Dragnet surveillance since the telegraph.
1:03:07 We have to build a digital dog.
1:04:14 The dream of cyber libertarians.
1:04:54 Is the government out to get you?
1:05:55 Targeted surveillance is more important.
1:06:57 A proper warrant process leveraging citizens.
1:08:43 Just like procedures for elections.
1:09:41 Use democratic system during chip fabrication.
1:10:49 How democracy can help with technical challenges.
1:11:31 Current world: anarchy between countries.
1:12:25 Only those with the most guns and money rule.
1:13:19 Everyone needing to spend a lot on military.
1:14:04 AI also engages states in a race.
1:15:16 Anarchy is not a given: US example.
1:16:05 The forming of the United States.
1:17:24 This federacy model could apply to AI
1:18:03 Same idea was even proposed by Sam Altman.
1:18:54 How can we maximize the chances of success?
1:19:46 Part 3: How to actually form international treaties.
1:20:09 Calling for a world government scares people.
1:21:17 Genuine risk of global dictatorship.
1:21:45 We need a world /federal/ democratic government.
1:23:02 Why people are not outspoken.
1:24:12 Isn’t it hard to get everyone on one page?
1:25:20 Moving from anarchy to a social contract.
1:26:11 Many states have very little sovereignty.
1:26:53 Different religions didn’t prevent common ground.
1:28:16 China and US political systems similar.
1:30:14 Coming together, values could be better.
1:31:47 Critical mass of states.
1:32:19 The Philadelphia convention example.
1:32:44 Start with say seven states.
1:33:48 Date of the US constitutional convention.
1:34:42 US and China both invited but only together.
1:35:43 Funding will make a big difference.
1:38:36 Lobbying to US and China.
1:38:49 Conclusion.
1:39:33 Outro

A recently adopted United Nations treaty could lead to invasive digital surveillance, human rights experts warn.

By Kate Graham-Shaw

NEW YORK CITY —The United Nations approved its first international cybercrime treaty yesterday. The effort succeeded despite opposition from tech companies and human rights groups, who warn that the agreement will permit countries to expand invasive electronic surveillance in the name of criminal investigations. Experts from these organizations say that the treaty undermines the global human rights of freedom of speech and expression because it contains clauses that countries could interpret to internationally prosecute any perceived crime that takes place on a computer system.

WASHINGTON — Russia, as expected, vetoed April 24 a United Nations Security Council resolution crafted in response to reports that the country was developing a nuclear anti-satellite weapon.

Russia cast the only vote against the draft resolution that reaffirmed provisions in the Outer Space Treaty prohibiting the placement of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in space. Thirteen other members of the Security Council voted in favor of the resolution while China abstained. As a permanent member of the Security Council, though, Russia’s vote acted as a veto preventing adoption of the resolution.

Japan and the United States drafted the Security Council resolution, which they billed as the first devoted to outer space issues. The resolution directed members to uphold Article 4 of the Outer Space Treaty, which forbids countries from placing nuclear weapons in orbit or on celestial bodies. It also called on countries not to develop nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction specifically designed to be placed in orbit.

Nuclear arms are the most destructive, indiscriminate and monstrous weapons ever produced – but today, we can all celebrate a major milestone in the long march towards peace: the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is now part of international law!

The year 2021 also marks the 50th anniversary of Greenpeace, which began life in September 1971 when a small group of activists set sail to the island of Amchitka, off the west coast of Alaska, to try and stop nuclear weapons testing from taking place. Greenpeace could not be more delighted that in the anniversary year of our founding journey, we can join the celebration to mark this historic Treaty coming into force and pay our deepest respects to advocates for this momentous achievement, led by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN).

Greenpeace France interviewed Jean-Marie Collin of ICAN France about the challenges and prospects that arise from the Treaty’s entry into force.

Although essentially the United Nations are now making nuclear weapons illegal with new treaties like nuclear disarmament. Russia currently has taken another route for globalization and possibly nuclear escalation. As currently the doomsday clock seems closer to midnight which could mean the end of the world scenarios due to Russias escalation and the possibility of all out nuclear war globally and then nuclear annihilation of the planet. Even with current wars are actually seemingly always going on but this global escalation of nuclear war is a zero sum game as no one would be the winner due to radiation levels circulating the planet. I do think that the us and china are in a treaty but so far Russia is still escalating which now holds the world now ransom.

This is a summary of Policy Brief 139 which is available with full references on the Toda Peace Institute’s website.

In January 2021, a global treaty came into force outlawing the bomb. The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW or Ban Treaty) is the most significant multilateral development in nuclear arms control since the Non-Proliferation Treaty’s (NPT) entry into force in 1970. It establishes a new normative settling point on the ethics, legality and legitimacy of the bomb.

The possession of nuclear weapons by nine countries did not suddenly became illegal with the treaty’s entry into force in January 2021. However, it would be false to claim that a UN-negotiated treaty, following a UN-authorised process and conference, has no implications for the legality and legitimacy of nuclear-weapon possession and practices.

US says move will undermine confidence in international arms control, amid concerns Moscow’s nuclear threats are designed to deter Ukraine’s allies.

BRUSSELS (AP) — NATO member countries that signed a key Cold War-era security treaty froze their participation in the pact on Tuesday just hours after Russia pulled out, raising fresh questions about the future of arms control agreements in Europe. Many of NATO’s 31 allies are parties to the Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, which was aimed at preventing Cold War rivals from massing forces at or near their mutual borders. The CFE…

An international team of scientists has proposed a new remote monitoring method of nuclear stockpiles using mirrors and radio waves.

An international team of scientists has devised an innovative method of using radio waves to monitor a nation’s nuclear stockpile remotely. Conducted by a team of IT security experts from Germany and the United States, it could be used to build trust between nuclear powers to ensure rivals are keeping their promises when it comes to agreed nuclear disarmament treaties. It could also be used to give a “heads up” if one particular nuclear power removes stored nuclear warheads, which could be an indication of intended use.

Johannes Tobisch et al 2023.

Remote nuke monitoring.

Dr. Robert Floyd, Ph.D. is Executive Secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO — https://www.ctbto.org/), the organization tasked with building up the verification regime of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, a multilateral treaty opened for signature in 1996 by which states agree to ban all nuclear explosions in all environments, for military or civilian purposes.

Prior to joining CTBTO, Dr. Floyd was the Director General of the Australian Safeguards and Non-proliferation Office (ASNO), where he was responsible for Australia’s implementation of and compliance with various international treaties and conventions including the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM) and the Chemical Weapons Convention.

During his time as Director General of ASNO, Dr. Floyd also chaired the advisory group to the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency on safeguards implementation (SAGSI), co-chaired the Preparatory Committee for the review of the amended CPPNM, co-chaired one of the working groups of the International Partnership for Nuclear Disarmament Verification, was the lead official for Australia in the Nuclear Security Summit process, and chaired the Asia-Pacific Safeguards Network.

Prior to his appointment with ASNO, Dr. Floyd served for more than seven years in the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet where he held a number of senior executive positions providing advice to the Prime Minister on policy issues covering counter-terrorism, counter-proliferation, emergency management, and homeland and border security.

Vladimir Putin confirmed Russia has sent nuclear arms to its ally Belarus, which borders Ukraine. Putin has repeatedly warned that Russia, which has more nuclear weapons than any other country, will use all means to defend itself. Russia has a huge numerical superiority over the united states and the nato military alliance when it comes to tactical nuclear weapons. The united states believe Russia has around 2,000 such working tactical warheads. Reports say, the united states has around 200 tactical nuclear weapons, half of which are at bases in Europe. Remember, Belarus has borders with 3 nato members — Poland, Lithuania & Latvia. The treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, signed by the soviet union, says no nuclear power can transfer nuclear weapons or tech to a non-nuclear power.