I am a senior lecturer for MBA in the UK & China. My specialist areas are VUCA, managerial economics, statistics and I was previously at defence intelligence for NATO & SIPRI (forecasting air defence requirements team).

I have looked and studied the Imperial model, based on real life scenarios in US, Italy and Spain, this Imperial model will fail in less than 4 weeks. Secondly, the model being used in the US is failing as we speak, we will see more than a million death before the prospects of any vaccines.

My estimation is we will be talking in close to a million deaths in the UK alone with serious impact on NHS and NHS Staffs will represent a major proportion of the fatalities.

The collaterals will be -

1. No staffs (NHS/ rapid response)
2. No place on wards (beds/ physical room)
3. No ventilation ( plus other medical devices)
4. Greater public infections ( exponential)
5. Break down in UK emergency system
6. Mob rules (riots and culture of fear)
7. Collapse in government and judicial
8. Collapse in Academia and research
9. Limited protections ( two tier systems)
10. Collapse in industry and economy

Furthermore, there will be more death due to market failures of medicine and food.

Please I would like to put these points to the highest authority through your team for a National Strategy.

Sharma Guness
36 Pembury Crescent
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07920563589

http://linkedin.com/in/sharmaguness