Comments on: LHC-Critique PRESS RELEASE (Feb 13 2012): CERN plans Mega-particle collider. COMMUNICATION to CERN: For a neutral and multi-disciplinary risk assessment before any LHC upgrade https://lifeboat.com/blog/2012/02/lhc-critique-press-release-feb-13-2012-cern-plans-mega-particle-collider-communication-to-cern-for-a-neutral-and-multi-disciplinary-risk-assessment-before-any-lhc-upgrade Safeguarding Humanity Mon, 17 Apr 2017 05:27:38 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.5.3 By: Niccolò Tottoli https://lifeboat.com/blog/2012/02/lhc-critique-press-release-feb-13-2012-cern-plans-mega-particle-collider-communication-to-cern-for-a-neutral-and-multi-disciplinary-risk-assessment-before-any-lhc-upgrade#comment-102182 Mon, 20 Feb 2012 17:56:22 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=3199#comment-102182 “A lot of the problems we face are essentially man-made, so naturally as human beings we should also be able to reduce them. Natural disasters, of course, are in a different category, but according to environmental scientists even they may owe something to human behaviour. Therefore, if we are optimistic, take a longer view, and we employ realistic methods, we can contribute to making the world a better place.” (Tendzin Gyatsho, the 14. Dalai Lama on facebook).
http://www.facebook.com/groups/151929461535765/2923235941630…4125332616

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By: Niccolò Tottoli https://lifeboat.com/blog/2012/02/lhc-critique-press-release-feb-13-2012-cern-plans-mega-particle-collider-communication-to-cern-for-a-neutral-and-multi-disciplinary-risk-assessment-before-any-lhc-upgrade#comment-102038 Sat, 18 Feb 2012 22:03:03 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=3199#comment-102038 Revisions: (Niccolò Tottoli on February 18, 2012 5:33 am)
- 2nd paragraph, end of 2nd line. Not “or the speed of light” but “or that nothing would be faster than light”.
- Last word of my comment: Not “…contacts.” but “…contacts, for an open safety conference with CERN and the scientists referring to risks.”

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By: Niccolò Tottoli https://lifeboat.com/blog/2012/02/lhc-critique-press-release-feb-13-2012-cern-plans-mega-particle-collider-communication-to-cern-for-a-neutral-and-multi-disciplinary-risk-assessment-before-any-lhc-upgrade#comment-102017 Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:33:22 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=3199#comment-102017 Dear CERN, dear all

The world cannot be blown up because of a car accident. Perhaps someone says that a very small probability could exist due to the butterfly effect or similar theories — but it should be clear that the probability is much smaller than in the case of dealing with new sub-nuclear physics experiments. Thus, various risks have different worst case scenarios.
Experiments with an apocalyptic worst case scenario should have mathematical risk calculations (quantitative and qualitative) for the entire risk and for each discussed risk and model. A catastrophic risk analysis should be based on the standards of catastrophic risk research. The level of standards and the extent of the safety assessment should be in direct proportion to the worst case damage factor, especially if theories of risks could change. All these requirements are obviously not fulfilled in the LSAG safety report.
There are some mathematical calculations regarding the risks in the references or in references of references of the LSAG report but there is an absolute lack of it in the report itself.

Various physics theories do contradict each other. Sometimes truth changes to the untruth and untruth may change to something true again. Examples are Hawking radiation or the speed of light.
Reality was not as previously expected in different cases. Some examples are the “RHIC fireball” (energies higher than expected), dangerous radiation at the LHC (more than expected), neutrinos (faster than expected).
The LSAG safety report of CERN is mostly based on the (for various reasons) flawed cr-argument and on Einstein‘s theory of relativity. Regarding the catastrophic risk of micro black holes, one of the main safety arguments was Hawking radiation. But opinions have been changed and therefore HR is not anymore on the public safety page of CERN.

The safety assessment should be continuous, openly and all views and scientists with (to some extent) reasonable arguments should be taken into account because of possible theory changes.

Many arguments, papers and lists with numerous risks have been sent to CERN but only a few have been answered – often just in private messages by a single scientist. That should be changed. I repeat that the LSAG safety report of CERN seems to me like partly a defensive selection of denied risks, rather than a complete assessment of (re)searched risks and possibilities. It seems that some risks have even not been considered yet. The critics are able to provide CERN with a list of arguments or publications, perhaps not yet (or not properly) considered risk theories and scientific contacts.

Thanks for reading.

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By: Niccolò Tottoli https://lifeboat.com/blog/2012/02/lhc-critique-press-release-feb-13-2012-cern-plans-mega-particle-collider-communication-to-cern-for-a-neutral-and-multi-disciplinary-risk-assessment-before-any-lhc-upgrade#comment-101997 Sat, 18 Feb 2012 03:04:52 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=3199#comment-101997 Dear all
An adequate risk research and an open safety conference between all parties is required, to solve a problem with such a huge worst case scenario.
Please see my comments here too:
http://lifeboat.com/blog/2012/02/cerns-annual-chamonix-meeti…t-mega-lhc
Thank you very much.

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By: bill johnson https://lifeboat.com/blog/2012/02/lhc-critique-press-release-feb-13-2012-cern-plans-mega-particle-collider-communication-to-cern-for-a-neutral-and-multi-disciplinary-risk-assessment-before-any-lhc-upgrade#comment-101945 Fri, 17 Feb 2012 13:27:39 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=3199#comment-101945 LHCKritik thanks for clarifying the position that your network takes. My last point was simply trying the clarify the position that you would take on specific risk estimations and you addressed that in your last post.

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By: bill johnson https://lifeboat.com/blog/2012/02/lhc-critique-press-release-feb-13-2012-cern-plans-mega-particle-collider-communication-to-cern-for-a-neutral-and-multi-disciplinary-risk-assessment-before-any-lhc-upgrade#comment-101944 Fri, 17 Feb 2012 13:18:24 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=3199#comment-101944 Mr Kerwick,

Thanks for bringing up the third category, I was only looking at those who wanted to halt operations at the LHC but in terms of those who support a safety conference there are three groups. I fall into the third group and support a safety conference as a matter of as a matter of due diligence and I think that such a conference could be held as the experiments continue.

In terms of having CERN participate in a new safety conference I think the biggest impediment thus far is the fact that the most vocal people calling for a safety conference have tried to get the LHC shut down, to include taking court actions against CERN. CERN isn’t going to want to go out of their way to accommodate people who are trying to shut their largest operation down.

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By: Tom Kerwick https://lifeboat.com/blog/2012/02/lhc-critique-press-release-feb-13-2012-cern-plans-mega-particle-collider-communication-to-cern-for-a-neutral-and-multi-disciplinary-risk-assessment-before-any-lhc-upgrade#comment-101936 Fri, 17 Feb 2012 09:38:42 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=3199#comment-101936 Mr Johnson — yes your summation is quite accurate, though splitting semantics one could say that sufficient information is there to make a more accurate assessment if more minds were put together at a safety conference to discuss the various aspects… and there is a third catagory that concludes a safety conference is warranted in parallel with the experiments… as general consensus among academics (ie not specifically critics) is that the concern is perhaps too low to warrant interruption, though the conference should be held as a matter of due dilligence. The problem is at present that CERN seem unwilling to partake in this due dilligence.

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By: LHC Kritik https://lifeboat.com/blog/2012/02/lhc-critique-press-release-feb-13-2012-cern-plans-mega-particle-collider-communication-to-cern-for-a-neutral-and-multi-disciplinary-risk-assessment-before-any-lhc-upgrade#comment-101929 Fri, 17 Feb 2012 01:19:14 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=3199#comment-101929 Agreement so far dear Mr Johnson: The aim of the “LHC Kritik” network was never to favor a specific theory predicting dangers. In the same way LHC Kritik does not openly support a specific risk estimation of any author of such a theory.
Secondly, maybe not completely following your last conclusion: There are a number of theories predicting dangers. Then the question is how likely are these theories, or how likely is it that the experiments would trigger these dangers. The probability studies described above rather came from the other way around and not from the concrete discussion on such theories. This means, they wanted to prove how watertight the safety arguments are that probably nothing could go wrong. To conclude: “The current information available to us” is not very assuring.

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By: bill johnson https://lifeboat.com/blog/2012/02/lhc-critique-press-release-feb-13-2012-cern-plans-mega-particle-collider-communication-to-cern-for-a-neutral-and-multi-disciplinary-risk-assessment-before-any-lhc-upgrade#comment-101928 Fri, 17 Feb 2012 00:29:33 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=3199#comment-101928 Mr. Kerwick and LHC Kritik
Thank you both for your replies.
Just to clarify, the bottom line for both of you was that there is not sufficient information to provide an accurate assessment of the probability of the LHC leading to any of the proposed disaster scenarios and thus there is a need for the safety conference. Is that accurate?
If that is the case would I then be correct in assuming that you don’t accept Mr. Rossler’s estimate that, “we have a probability of between 4 and 8 percent that the deadliest virus of the universe (a black hole) settles inside earth to devour it in a few years’ time.”, but rather you would say that more study would be needed before such a prediction could be made.
This interests me because there seems to be two different arguments here,
The first states that the risk is known and thus the LHC must be shut off until the known risk is disproven
The second argues that the potential risk is there and we don’t know how great that risk is, and so the LHC should be shut off until a safety conference can take place to better determine what the risk level is.
In this case the two arguments would have very similar goals but both the second argument, and CERN would agree that the first argument is claiming more certainty in their predictions then is warranted by the current information available to us.

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By: LHC Kritik https://lifeboat.com/blog/2012/02/lhc-critique-press-release-feb-13-2012-cern-plans-mega-particle-collider-communication-to-cern-for-a-neutral-and-multi-disciplinary-risk-assessment-before-any-lhc-upgrade#comment-101927 Fri, 17 Feb 2012 00:22:53 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=3199#comment-101927 Misleading argument “WK”. This post is explicitly not discussing theories of specific dangers but probability studies.

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