Comments on: Asteroid shield related: deflection mission and other proposals https://lifeboat.com/blog/2007/02/asteroid-shield-related-deflection-mission-and-other-proposals Safeguarding Humanity Mon, 17 Apr 2017 05:27:53 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.1 By: Centauri Dreams » Blog Archive » Asteroid Deflection and the Odds https://lifeboat.com/blog/2007/02/asteroid-shield-related-deflection-mission-and-other-proposals#comment-389 Thu, 01 Mar 2007 14:06:12 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=48#comment-389 […] Addendum: New Scientist covers Apophis scenarios and asteroid deflection in this recent article. Also see this post by Brian Wang on the Lifeboat Foundation weblog. […]

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By: Brian Wang https://lifeboat.com/blog/2007/02/asteroid-shield-related-deflection-mission-and-other-proposals#comment-313 Wed, 21 Feb 2007 00:10:34 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=48#comment-313 The risks of smaller asteroids that can destroy regions is about one every 1000 years
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_risk_021009.html

An improved estimate of the number of nearby asteroids still capable of causing local destruction suggests these pesky rocks are likely to hit Earth about once every 1,000 years (Harris’ estimate is uncertain by a factor of about three.) Astronomers had thought such minor catastrophes occurred about once per century.

The new calculations, from Alan Harris of the Space Science Institute in Boulder, CO, show there are about 500,000 relatively small asteroids that inhabit roughly the same region of space through which Earth orbits. The asteroids are in the 50–75 meter (165–245 foot) size range.

Rocks this size can flatten a forest and would cause tremendous damage and even death if it hit a city.

From page 13 of this pdf
http://www.esa.int/gsp/NEO/doc/NEOMAP_report_June23_wCover.pdf

Table 1.1. The estimated frequency and effects of impactors as a function of size.

Impactor size (m) Mean impact Energy released
interval (yr) (megatons TNT)

30 200 2 — Fireball, shock-wave, minor damage.
50 2500 10 Tunguska explosion or small crater.
100 5000 80 Largest H-bomb detonation.
200 47,000 600 Destruction on national scale.
500 200,000 10,000 Destruction on European scale.
1000 600,000 80,000 Many millions dead, global effects.
5000 20 million 10 million Billions dead, global climate change.
10,000 100 million 80 million Extinction of human civilization.
Note: The energy release estimates assume a density of 3500 kg m-3 (stony body) and an impact velocity of 20 km s-1.

Being able to steer away those 200-500m rocks would be good and definitely the 1000-5000m and 5000m+ rocks.
Plus the intervals are statistical and if we perform a complete survey then we can get a better idea of actual dangers and timings.

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By: Brian Wang https://lifeboat.com/blog/2007/02/asteroid-shield-related-deflection-mission-and-other-proposals#comment-289 Sun, 18 Feb 2007 21:53:32 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=48#comment-289 But we cannot be sure of when the next one will hit without a complete survey. Plus the asteroid dangers are ones that we can very affordably take actions against. Unlike some other risks and dangers which are more costly. Plus there are other scientific and economic advantages in more advanced space capablities.

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By: randpost https://lifeboat.com/blog/2007/02/asteroid-shield-related-deflection-mission-and-other-proposals#comment-288 Sun, 18 Feb 2007 21:32:56 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=48#comment-288 Civilization killing asteroid is predicted to hit Earth around every 100 million years. It is extremely unlikely that it is going to hit us in the next 50–100 years.. We should monitor asteroids and plan for them but the risk is extremely low.

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