Lifeboat Foundation

The universe as we know it might not end unexpectedly and unpredictably. That’s good. But on the other hand, it might. That’s bad. Consider just one way the universe could change unexpectedly. Physicists call it a “vacuum metastability event.”

Unbeknownst to us, all of space (even where there is complete vacuum) could be stuck in a relatively high energy state that has been stable so far, but might not remain so forever. This relatively high energy state is termed a “false vacuum.” At some spot in the universe this state could suddenly transition to a lower energy state (because of chance quantum tunneling, or a high-energy physics experiment involving an accelerator like CERN’s Large Hadron Collider gone awry, or perhaps some other unfortunate meddling by supposedly intelligent beings on another planet far away). Crazy things would then happen fast. The laws governing the universe could change at that spot, radically changing or simply destroying whatever happens to be there. Sound like no big deal if you’re not in the vicinity? It gets worse, and quickly. The lower-energy state of this spot would spread outward at near the speed of light. The changed physical laws, annihilation of matter, or whatever it is that is associated with this lower energy state would also spread outward at the same rate. The Earth would be destroyed more or less instantly if it started on Earth. If it started somewhere else in the universe, the spread would arrive here eventually. When it did, the Earth as we know it would be gone in the blink of an eye.

We don’t know much about what this new state of the universe would be like, but physicists Coleman and de Luccia deduced something about it. They wrote that, heretofore, “one could always draw stoic comfort from the possibility that perhaps in the course of time the new vacuum would sustain, if not life as we know it, at least some structures capable of knowing joy. This possibility has now been eliminated.” Not a pleasant prospect that.

If you feel this is hard to wrap your mind around, and does not exactly make common sense, you are not alone. Even the physicists who investigate the mathematical models from which they draw such conclusions don’t know if their equations really apply or not. As philosophers of science like Karl Popper (who is admired by many scientists) have pointed out, scientific theories cannot be proven absolutely. Of course, evidence may build up in favor or against a theory, and the rational person will go with the evidence. But quality evidence about vacuum metastability events may not be obtainable unless one actually happens, mooting the question. So maybe we have nothing to worry about, and maybe we do. How much do we need to worry?

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