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Feb 7, 2012

Space Age Redux

Posted by in categories: business, engineering, ethics, events, futurism, nuclear, policy, space, treaties

If any one event doomed the space age and stranded mankind in Low Earth Orbit, it may have been a single decision concerning the much maligned Solid Rocket Booster.

In the early 1960’s Aerojet invested millions in very large monolithic solid rocket boosters built with submarine hull technology. Unfortunately, the politics involved dictated that any large Solid Rocket Boosters for the space program would be coming from Utah. The Aerojet booster shells would have come from Sun shipyards in Philadelphia by barge– while Utah production had to be transported by rail in separate segments.

So sure was Aerojet of the superiority of their new boosters that they built a factory in the everglades to pour the propellant. Aerojet was so confident because these boosters of over four million pounds of thrust would cost about one dollar per pound of thrust. These pairs of reusable boosters would have put out more thrust than the 1st stage of the Saturn V for about one fortieth the price.

The politically chosen Thiokol segmented boosters would severely limit any vehicle using them and in the case of the space transportation system also going with the space plane concept would strand the U.S. in Low Earth Orbit to this day. The Aerojet factory sits abandoned with the remains of the most powerful booster ever fired, the AJ-260, sitting in a test silo.

Along with the failure to use monolithic boosters came the second strike against space exploration; the failure to utilize wet workshops. This use of empty fuel tanks for use as spaceship compartments and for rendered alloy would have allowed for large structures to be readily available. Solar energy to melt down these stages into more massive components would have allowed the building of pusher plates for atomic bomb powered spaceships in earth orbit. The third strike was this failure to adopt the only practical interplanetary propulsion system available at the time.

A half century after atomic bomb propulsion was first evaluated the situation has not changed at all. There is still no other method of propulsion that has any chance of providing the necessary performance. Prohibiting nuclear devices by space by treaty was yet another political stumbling block in the path of human space flight. Detonating nuclear devices in earth orbit may have been feasible at the north and south poles where there were magnetosphere exclusion zones. In these areas it may have been possible to boost out of orbit without contaminating the earth’s atmosphere.

Sadly, the money being funneled into just a single troubled DOD program, the F-35 stealth fighter, would finance a Beyond Earth Orbit Human Space Flight program with these technologies that have been waiting for over half a century to be utilized. The defense industry continues to realize immense profits by producing weapons that cannot , for example, keep the straits of Hormuz open when facing anti-ship missiles.

It is a question the easy money of weapons and classified programs vs. the hard money of building spaceships that work. We can train our young people to clear buildings with automatic weapons and invest in brain trauma rehab or we can train them to build spaceships. The money will be spent either way.

Feb 3, 2012

My Case Against Mars

Posted by in categories: engineering, futurism, habitats, nuclear, space

Mars is the worst place to go. A deep gravity well to climb in and out of. A case of too much gravity and no protection from radiation.

Ceres is a much better deal. A multi-year mission is a multi-year mission and if you are going to Mars it makes more sense to go farther to Ceres. No problem landing as it has very little gravity, but may have liquid oceans. Solar resources on Mars are not very good.

The Moon has ice and is the first place to go for the simple reason that any human missions outbound will require massive shielding and that shielding will require nuclear propulsion.

Building and lighting off a nuclear spaceship in earth orbit is not acceptable and bringing up all that water is problematic. The moon has water for shielding and no restrictions on nuclear activities.

The safest way to transport fissionables to lunar orbit is a direct launch of a human-rated HLV with an escape tower and the material packaged in a capsule.

My essays on Lifeboat also talk about nuclear energy in space:

Water and Bombs talks about nuclear propulsion,

Plowshare in Space talks about nuclear excavation of colonies,

How to Build a Spaceship is self-explanatory.

Jan 21, 2012

BEO-HSF

Posted by in categories: asteroid/comet impacts, biotech/medical, business, counterterrorism, defense, economics, education, engineering, ethics, events, existential risks, futurism, habitats, life extension, lifeboat, military, nuclear, physics, policy, rants, space, transparency

I became interested in Beyond Earth Orbit– Human Space Flight by way of a college paper I helped my wife research some years ago. Her project for an ethics class was nuclear weapons. I stumbled upon the book “Project Orion, the true story of the atomic spaceship” by George Dyson and was hooked. I had been a science fiction fan in my youth but like most people I came to realize space operas were to be realized only in the far future. Project Orion changed my worldview. Since then my made-up mind has been unmade several times concerning most of the “common knowledge” floating around about space flight in this 21st century. Much of what is generally believed to be true about our space program is made up of recent hearsay used to hype products that further a business plan. When I read these infomercials endlessly repeated as fact I get pretty upset, mostly exposing these “facts” as not true results in vicious attacks. Private space cult members disgust me and I will not apologize for my hard feelings about these people. They mislead and obfuscate, and insult and dogpile anyone who disagrees with their dogma.

It was a step by step process but I came to realize the path to the stars is a narrow one. I found the U.S. space effort has been on what is called “the flexible path” and this turned out to be a contradiction of almost everything I found in my research. There is no Flexible Path. The path to colonizing the solar system is narrow and straightforward due to the laws of physics and materials science. Science fiction movies seem to have conditioned the public to believe such natural laws can be violated and technology that breaks these laws is possible and immanent. This kind of ignorance of natural limitations has led to much waste and many tragedies in the past decades by pushing said limits and there is soon to come great disappointment over breakthroughs that are far easier said than done. By way of political contributions and backroom deals, the flexible path scheme came into existence as a way of making money for a small group of investors looking to cash in on public ignorance of technology and influence peddling. It is a convoluted and confusing path and perhaps the best way to make my meaning plain despite this distraction is to start at the desired end and work backwards.

If the end goal is new worlds for humankind to inhabit, the earliest practical portrayal of a possible new world was in the 1929 work, “The World, The Flesh, and The Devil”, by socialist Joseph Bernal. I must say I am no socialist or capitalist, but I am someone who is sometimes very unhappy with people at either end of that spectrum. Space is not about politics– it is about survival. More than just surviving– thriving. Human beings need earth-like conditions to thrive– and a hollow moon can provide those conditions.Though the hollow artificial moon proposed by Bernal does not address artificial gravity, the hollow sphere concept does, if spun, allow for earth gravity on the inner surface at the equator. Hollow spheres in space can provide habitats for thousands, millions, billions, perhaps tens of billions of people. Space is big, with alot of sunlight and rock floating around waiting to be exploited. And tens of thousands of icy comets. Solar energy and low gravity resources in the asteroid belt mean that building on a much larger scale than we do on earth is practical. While we construct thousand foot supertankers and skyscrapers with some difficulty in earth gravity, the same masses of metal and concrete in space can form a shell many miles in diameter with many times less energy expended.

The most interesting fact of all about Bernal spheres is that building them is not much of a stretch of the imagination. It is the strongest shape and the energy to melt and refine ore and the various rocks and ices are available, and there are no engineering showstoppers. Fill a Bernal sphere with comet water and air and spin and humankind has created a new world to live “in.” New worlds capable of traveling for centuries to other star systems when the time comes. While we have the technology, amazingly, to build such hollow moons right now, we lack only a single medical procedure to allow for star travel with them– revivable cryospreservation. This one key piece of technology, which also breaks no laws of physics, is all that holds the human race back from colonizing the galaxy.

This future is not the hyperspace warp drive stargate winged starship fantasy the public has in mind. Though slowboats do not lend themselves well to screenplays and formula blockbusters, they are more exciting to those of us who understand what is possible in the near future. But before these new worlds can be manufactured, probably near the end of this century, humankind must first establish an infrastructure in deep space to enable that activity.

To live in space is different than to survive. Missions based on how much radiation and zero G debilitation a human being can survive on average are certain to fail. Providing earth radiation levels and gravity is certain to succeed. Radiation is the first killer, and lack of gravity as a debilitator is the second made even worse by the first. To set up an infrastructure that will allow colonies and eventually migration requires spaceships and these radiation and hypogravity hazards cannot be avoided. The only guaranteed shield against the heavy nuclei component of cosmic radiation is mass and distance. The only practical spaceship shielding is 14 or more feet of water. The only way to propel this much mass around the solar system is with nuclear energy. Nuclear activities in earth orbit are not acceptable. Lifting thousands and eventually millions of tons of water into earth orbit are also not acceptable. This path leads to the moon where nuclear activities are permissible and there is water. The only way to get to the moon is with Heavy Lift Vehicles like the Saturn V and the future SLS. The only way to transport fissionables to the moon safely is with Heavy Lift Vehicles. And this is where the private space agenda rears it’s ugly head.

HLV’s and anything needing massive governmental resources, such as nuclear energy, are blasphemy to the private space cult. While their dogma preaches that cheap lift can be had with smaller kerosene rockets with a high launch rate, they go on to enable missions beyond earth orbit by way of fuel depots and transfer in space. For a scientifically ignorant public this all makes sense. But it is the kerosene-hydrogen disconnect that exposes the private space flexible path as a business plan to fool taxpayers into subsidizing a Low Earth Orbit space tourism industry for the ultra-rich.

Liquid hydrogen does not store well and is very difficult to transfer. It is difficult on the ground but in space it has never been done because it is such a nightmare. The entire transfer system and recieving tank have to be pre-cooled with liquid helium and a perfect precool is physically impossible. This generates liquid hydrogen boil-off that must be re-liquified– which generates the exo-thermic form of hydrogen– that generates more boil-off. Compounded by space radiation and zero gravity effects, this is all a real mess that no one wants to talk about. Like radiation shielding, it is a topic avoided by private space advocates to the point of hurling insults. Not only is hydrogen hard to handle on the ground and much harder to deal with in space, an engine burning it requires a turbopump ten times more powerful than one for a kerosene engine. Which is why kerosene is hyped by private space as such a wonderful propellent– because both handling hydrogen and using hydrogen engines is much more expensive and cuts into projected profit margins.

So why does the orbital fuel depot and transfer concept specify liquid hydrogen? If kerosene is so much better then why bother with liquid hydrogen in orbital fuel depots? Because there is no substitute for hydrogen Earth Departure Stages when it comes to escaping earth’s gravitational field. Using other propellants multiplies the size of these stages several times. Any human missions Beyond Earth Orbit not using liquid hydrogen Earth Departure Stages look like Battlestar Galactica. Because of the Apollo program and every study done on any BEO missions, private space knows they cannot claim otherwise and get away with it. So private space advocates avoid this subject like the plague. Since it is not practical to store or transfer liquid hydrogen in space a direct launch out of orbit, like the Apollo program, is required. The laws of physics have not changed since the 1960’s. Since the inferior lift vehicles advocated in the flexible path are capable of boosting a few tons at a time out of orbit, Heavy Lift Vehicles become necessary.

Thus, there is no substitute for a HLV with hydrogen upper stages. There is no cheap; space flight is inherently expensive.

The resources necessary to build an infrastructure for BEO-HSF is unavailable to private space. HLV’s sending packaged fissionables to the moon are completely out of reach of “entrepreneurs” claiming the flexible path will open the solar system to colonization. In fact, private space claiming they are the future of space exploration is a lie, a deception being used to acquire taxpayer support for space tourism. Forty years of space stations going in endless circles at very high altitude is a dead end. The space tourism industry wants this truth suppressed and portrays LEO stations as the cutting edge of “exploration.”

The justification and source of funding for BEO-HSF is impact defense and survival colonies. It is the DOD that is spending money on useless cold war toys that guarantee huge profits for the defense industry while neglecting the most vital mission of the U.S. space program; safeguarding the earth and the human race.

Jan 20, 2012

Old UNIX/IBM control systems: Potential time bombs in Industry.

Posted by in categories: cybercrime/malcode, defense, events, existential risks, military, nuclear

It may be a point of little attention, as the millennium bug came with a lot of hoo-ha and went out with a whimper, but the impact it had on business was small because of all the hoo-ha, not in spite of it. And so it is with some concern that I consider operating system rollover dates as a potential hazard by software malfunction at major industrial operations such as nuclear power stations and warhead controls, which in worst case scenario, could of course have disastrous implications due to out-dated control systems.

The main dates of interest are 19 January 2038 by when all 32-bit Unix operating systems need to have been replaced by at least their 64-bit equivalents, and 17 Sept 2042 when IBM mainframes that use a 64-bit count need to be phased out.

Scare mongering? Perhaps not. While all modern facilities will have the superior time representation, I question if facilities built in the 70s and 80s, in particular those behind the old iron curtain were or ever will be upgraded. This raises a concern that for example the old soviet nuclear arsenal could become a major global threat within a few decades by malfunction if not decommissioned or control systems upgraded. It is one thing for a bank statement to print the date wrong on your latest bill due to millennium bug type issues, but if automated fault tolerance procedures have coding such as ‘if(time1 > time2+N) then initiate counter-measures’ then that is quite a different matter entirely.

I believe this is a topic which warrants higher profile lest it be forgot. Fortunately the global community has a few decades on its hands to handle this particular issue, though all it takes is just one un-cooperative facility to take such a risk rather than perform the upgrades necessary to ensure no such ‘meltdowns’ occur. Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock…

Jan 13, 2012

Verne, Wells, and the Obvious Future Part 2

Posted by in categories: asteroid/comet impacts, biotech/medical, business, defense, economics, education, engineering, ethics, events, evolution, existential risks, futurism, life extension, lifeboat, media & arts, military, nuclear, philosophy, physics, policy, space

I am taking the advice of a reader of this blog and devoting part 2 to examples of old school and modern movies and the visionary science they portray.

Things to Come 1936 — Event Horizon 1997
Things to Come was a disappointment to Wells and Event Horizon was no less a disappointment to audiences. I found them both very interesting as a showcase for some technology and social challenges.… to come– but a little off the mark in regards to the exact technology and explicit social issues. In the final scene of Things to Come, Raymond Massey asks if mankind will choose the stars. What will we choose? I find this moment very powerful– perhaps the example; the most eloguent expression of the whole genre of science fiction. Event Horizon was a complete counterpoint; a horror movie set in space with a starship modeled after a gothic cathedral. Event Horizon had a rescue crew put in stasis for a high G several month journey to Neptune on a fusion powered spaceship. High accelleration and fusion brings H-bombs to mind, and though not portrayed, this propulsion system is in fact a most probable future. Fusion “engines” are old hat in sci-fi despite the near certainty the only places fusion will ever work as advertised are in a bomb or a star. The Event Horizon, haunted and consigned to hell, used a “gravity drive” to achieve star travel by “folding space.” Interestingly, a recent concept for a black hole powered starship is probably the most accurate forecast of the technology that will be used for interstellar travel in the next century. While ripping a hole in the fabric of space time may be strictly science fantasy, for the next thousand years at least, small singularity propulsion using Hawking radiation to achieve a high fraction of the speed of light is mathematically sound and the most obvious future. That is, if humanity avoids an outbreak of engineered pathogens or any one of several other threats to our existence in that time frame.

Hand in hand with any practical method of journeys to other star systems in the concept of the “sleeper ship.” Not only as inevitable as the submarine or powered flight was in the past, the idea of putting human beings in cold storage would bring tremendous changes to society. Suspended animation using a cryopreservation procedure is by far the most radical and important global event possible, and perhpas probable, in the near future. The ramifications of a revivable whole body cryopreservation procedure are truly incredible. Cryopreservation would be the most important event in the history of mankind. Future generations would certainly mark it as the beginning of “modern” civilization. Though not taken seriously anymore than the possiblility of personal computers were, the advances in medical technology make any movies depicting suspended animation quite prophetic.

The Thing 1951/Them 1954 — Deep Impact 1998/Armegeddon 1998
These four movies were essentially about the same.…thing. Whether a space vampire not from earth in the arctic, mutated super organisms underneath the earth, or a big whatever in outer space on a collision course with earth, the subject was a monstrous threat to our world, the end of humankind on earth being the common theme. The lifeboat blog is about such threats and the The Thing and Them would also appeal to any fan of Barbara Ehrenreich’s book, Blood Rites. It is interesting that while we appreciate in a personal way what it means to face monsters or the supernatural, we just do not “get” the much greater threats only recently revealed by impact craters like Chixculub. In this way these movies dealing with instinctive and non-instinctive realized threats have an important relationship to each other. And this connection extends to the more modern sci-fi creature features of past decades. Just how much the The Thing and Them contributed to the greatest military sci-fi movie of the 20th century (Aliens, of course) will probably never be known. Director James Cameron once paid several million dollars out of court to sci-fi writer Harlan Ellison after admitting during an interview to using Ellison’s work– so he will not be making that mistake again. The second and third place honors, Starship Troopers and Predator, were both efforts of Dutch Film maker Paul Verhoeven.

While The Thing and Them still play well, and Deep Impact, directed by James Cameron’s ex-wife, is a good flick and has uncanny predictive elements such as a black president and a tidal wave, Armegeddon is worthless. I mention this trash cinema only because it is necessary for comparison and to applaud the 3 minutes when the cryogenic fuel transfer procedure is seen to be the farce that it is in actuality. Only one of the worst movie directors ever, or the space tourism industry, would parade such a bad idea before the public.
Ice Station Zebra 1968 — The Road 2009
Ice Station Zebra was supposedly based on a true incident. This cold war thriller featured Rock Hudson as the penultimate submarine commander and was a favorite of Howard Hughes. By this time a recluse, Hughes purchased a Las Vegas TV station so he could watch the movie over and over. For those who have not seen it, I will not spoil the sabotage sequence, which has never been equaled. I pair Ice Station Zebra and The Road because they make a fine quartet, or rather sixtet, with The Thing/Them and Deep Impact/Armegeddon.

 The setting for many of the scenes in these movies are a wasteland of ice, desert, cometoid, or dead forest. While Armegeddon is one of the worst movies ever made on a big budget, The Road must be one of the best on a small budget– if accuracy is a measure of best. The Road was a problem for the studio that produced it and release was delayed due to the reaction of the test audiences. All viewers left the theatre profoundly depressed. It is a shockingly realistic movie and disturbed to the point where I started writing about impact deflection. The connection between Armegeddon and The Road, two movies so different, is the threat and aftermath of an asteroid or comet impact. While The Road never specifies an impact as the disaster that ravaged the planet, it fits the story perfectly. Armegeddon has a few accurate statements about impacts mixed in with ludicrous plot devices that make the story a bad experience for anyone concerned with planetary protection. It seems almost blasphemous and positively criminal to make such a juvenile for profit enterprise out of an inevitable event that is as serious as serious gets. Do not watch it. Ice Station Zebra, on the other hand, is a must see and is in essence a showcase of the only tools available to prevent The Road from becoming reality. Nuclear weapons and space craft– the very technologies that so many feared would destroy mankind, are the only hope to save the human race in the event of an impending impact.

Part 3:
Gog 1954 — Stealth 2005
Fantastic Voyage 1966 — The Abyss 1989
And notable moments in miscellaneous movies.

Jan 11, 2012

Wildlife Sanctuaries in Eco-Disaster Areas

Posted by in categories: ethics, habitats, nuclear, sustainability

It was with great satisfaction that I watched a recent (Horizon?) documentary on the wildlife, wolf population and introduced endangerd species flourishing in the Chernobyl district in the abandonment of the area by mankind 25 years ago — with most not willing to hunt in the area for fear of contracting radiation poisoning. One wonders if this will be the template for the future, that eco-disaster areas will be abandoned to become our new wildlife sanctuaries. Or is it morally wrong to designate such areas as wildlife sanctuaries and wilfully expose the animal kindom to such levels of radiation?

After Fukushima the world was reawakened to the real danger of fault tollerance at nuclear power plants — but as a relatively clean technology is surely here to stay. Is there a need for a more inclusive debate on the location of such reactors to areas that are a) less likey to suffer natural disasters but b) also provide a suitable follow-on purpose in the event of area abandonment due to radiation. Opinions welcome.

Jan 10, 2012

Verne, Wells, and the Obvious Future Part 1

Posted by in categories: asteroid/comet impacts, business, education, engineering, ethics, events, existential risks, finance, fun, futurism, media & arts, military, nuclear, philosophy, physics, policy, robotics/AI, space, transparency

Steamships, locomotives, electricity; these marvels of the industrial age sparked the imagination of futurists such as Jules Verne. Perhaps no other writer or work inspired so many to reach the stars as did this Frenchman’s famous tale of space travel. Later developments in microbiology, chemistry, and astronomy would inspire H.G. Wells and the notable science fiction authors of the early 20th century.

The submarine, aircraft, the spaceship, time travel, nuclear weapons, and even stealth technology were all predicted in some form by science fiction writers many decades before they were realized. The writers were not simply making up such wonders from fanciful thought or childrens ryhmes. As science advanced in the mid 19th and early 20th century, the probable future developments this new knowledge would bring about were in some cases quite obvious. Though powered flight seems a recent miracle, it was long expected as hydrogen balloons and parachutes had been around for over a century and steam propulsion went through a long gestation before ships and trains were driven by the new engines. Solid rockets were ancient and even multiple stages to increase altitude had been in use by fireworks makers for a very long time before the space age.

Some predictions were seen to come about in ways far removed yet still connected to their fictional counterparts. The U.S. Navy flagged steam driven Nautilus swam the ocean blue under nuclear power not long before rockets took men to the moon. While Verne predicted an electric submarine, his notional Florida space gun never did take three men into space. However there was a Canadian weapons designer named Gerald Bull who met his end while trying to build such a gun for Saddam Hussien. The insane Invisible Man of Wells took the form of invisible aircraft playing a less than human role in the insane game of mutually assured destruction. And a true time machine was found easily enough in the mathematics of Einstein. Simply going fast enough through space will take a human being millions of years into the future. However, traveling back in time is still as much an impossibillity as the anti-gravity Cavorite from the First Men in the Moon. Wells missed on occasion but was not far off with his story of alien invaders defeated by germs– except we are the aliens invading the natural world’s ecosystem with our genetically modified creations and could very well soon meet our end as a result.

While Verne’s Captain Nemo made war on the death merchants of his world with a submarine ram, our own more modern anti-war device was found in the hydrogen bomb. So destructive an agent that no new world war has been possible since nuclear weapons were stockpiled in the second half of the last century. Neither Verne or Wells imagined the destructive power of a single missile submarine able to incinerate all the major cities of earth. The dozens of such superdreadnoughts even now cruising in the icy darkness of the deep ocean proves that truth is more often stranger than fiction. It may seem the golden age of predictive fiction has passed as exceptions to the laws of physics prove impossible despite advertisments to the contrary. Science fiction has given way to science fantasy and the suspension of disbelief possible in the last century has turned to disappointment and the distractions of whimsical technological fairy tales. “Beam me up” was simply a way to cut production costs for special effects and warp drive the only trick that would make a one hour episode work. Unobtainium and wishalloy, handwavium and technobabble– it has watered down what our future could be into childish wish fulfillment and escapism.

The triumvirate of the original visionary authors of the last two centuries is completed with E.E. Doc Smith. With this less famous author the line between predictive fiction and science fantasy was first truly crossed and the new genre of “Space Opera” most fully realized. The film industry has taken Space Opera and run with it in the Star Wars franchise and the works of Canadian film maker James Cameron. Though of course quite entertaining, these movies showcase all that is magical and fantastical– and wrong– concerning science fiction as a predictor of the future. The collective imagination of the public has now been conditioned to violate the reality of what is possible through the violent maiming of basic scientific tenets. This artistic license was something Verne at least tried not to resort to, Wells trespassed upon more frequently, and Smith indulged in without reservation. Just as Madonna found the secret to millions by shocking a jaded audience into pouring money into her bloomers, the formula for ripping off the future has been discovered in the lowest kind of sensationalism. One need only attend a viewing of the latest Transformer movie or download Battlestar Galactica to appreciate that the entertainment industry has cashed in on the ignorance of a poorly educated society by selling intellect decaying brain candy. It is cowboys vs. aliens and has nothing of value to contribute to our culture…well, on second thought, I did get watery eyed when the young man died in Harrison Ford’s arms. I am in no way criticizing the profession of acting and value the talent of these artists– it is rather the greed that corrupts the ancient art of storytelling I am unhappy with. Directors are not directors unless they make money and I feel sorry that these incredibly creative people find themselves less than free to pursue their craft.

The archetype of the modern science fiction movie was 2001 and like many legendary screen epics, a Space Odyssey was not as original as the marketing made it out to be. In an act of cinema cold war many elements were lifted from a Soviet movie. Even though the fantasy element was restricted to a single device in the form of an alien monolith, every artifice of this film has so far proven non-predictive. Interestingly, the propulsion system of the spaceship in 2001 was originally going to use atomic bombs, which are still, a half century later, the only practical means of interplanetary travel. Stanly Kubrick, fresh from Dr. Strangelove, was tired of nukes and passed on portraying this obvious future.

As with the submarine, airplane, and nuclear energy, the technology to come may be predicted with some accuracy if the laws of physics are not insulted but rather just rudely addressed. Though in some cases, the line is crossed and what is rude turns disgusting. A recent proposal for a “NautilusX” spacecraft is one example of a completely vulgar denial of reality. Chemically propelled, with little radiation shielding, and exhibiting a ridiculous doughnut centrifuge, such advertising vehicles are far more dishonest than cinematic fabrications in that they decieve the public without the excuse of entertaining them. In the same vein, space tourism is presented as space exploration when in fact the obscene spending habits of the ultra-wealthy have nothing to do with exploration and everything to do with the attendent taxpayer subsidized business plan. There is nothing to explore in Low Earth Orbit except the joys of zero G bordellos. Rudely undressing by way of the profit motive is followed by a rude address to physics when the key private space scheme for “exploration” is exposed. This supposed key is a false promise of things to come.

While very large and very expensive Heavy Lift Rockets have been proven to be successful in escaping earth’s gravitational field with human passengers, the inferior lift vehicles being marketed as “cheap access to space” are in truth cheap and nasty taxis to space stations going in endless circles. The flim flam investors are basing their hopes of big profit on is cryogenic fuel depots and transfer in space. Like the filling station every red blooded American stops at to fill his personal spaceship with fossil fuel, depots are the solution to all the holes in the private space plan for “commercial space.” Unfortunately, storing and transferring hydrogen as a liquified gas a few degrees above absolute zero in a zero G environment has nothing in common with filling a car with gasoline. It will never work as advertised. It is a trick. A way to get those bordellos in orbit courtesy of taxpayer dollars. What a deal.

So what is the obvious future that our present level of knowledge presents to us when entertaining the possible and the impossible? More to come.

Dec 10, 2011

How to Build a Spaceship

Posted by in categories: asteroid/comet impacts, biotech/medical, counterterrorism, defense, engineering, existential risks, military, nuclear, space

The first decade of the 21st century ended with human space flight nowhere near to fulfilling the predictions made at the begining of the space age. Not even close. Just as the Vietnam war robbed the space exploration budget, the turn of the century found vast public funds, a truly mindboggling amount of treasure, spent on the cold war toys that have yielded guaranteed huge profits for the military industrial complex. Many of these incredibly expensive weapon systems do not work as advertised and very few of them have any application in the present war on terror. 911 did not stop the money flowing to new super fighter planes and missiles designed to shoot down other missiles. The promise of space was in truth sacrificed for the profits of the weapons industry. The expected moon bases and colonies on Mars were never funded and no human being has escaped earth orbit since the last Apollo mission. The over sold and underfunded space shuttle completely failed to provide the cheap lift and multi-mission capability that was never really possible to achieve. The showpiece International Space Station is little more than a 100 billion dollar collection of tin cans flying in endless circles.

The human race seems in large part to have accepted the end of the space age. Despite a collection of old and new inferior lift vehicles incapable of accelerating a crewed spacecraft to escape velocity, there is endless hype concerning the privatization of space and the bright future these for profit enterprises will bring about. The single point of failure in these schemes is the false miracle of fuel depots in space. These orbital gas stations will supposedly enable all the missions that previously could only be accomplished by Heavy Lift Vehicles (HLV)  like the Saturn V. Cryo propellant storage and transfer is at this time a myth and has never even been attempted due to the extreme difficulties involved. It is a smoke screen to disguise defeat while subsidizing space tourism for the ultra-rich. We are not going anywhere if we stay on this path. The only hope for human space flight is the realization that deep space travel may at any time mean the difference between humankind surviving or disappearing forever. If this truth cannot unlock the vast resources required then we may very well be  sealing our collective fate.

The Spaceship is the only insurance against extinction. Safeguarding the entire human race is the ultimate military mission, yet is completely ignored by our leaders and the defense industry. The inevitable asteroid or comet impact and the threat of a 100 percent lethal plague are with us right now. We as a species are playing a game of Russian roulette. We truly do not know when, but we know what is coming.

Everyone breathes a sigh of relief when it is explained that disastrous impacts only occur an average of once every several million years. The key fact never discussed is impacts are random.  An impact could occur tomorrow, and again the next day, and it would just be a blip on a curved line representing the immensity of geologic time. No one would be left to exclaim, “WOW! What were the odds of that happening?” In the same way the threat of engineered pathogens is ignored, overlooked, or scoffed at in the hopes it will just go away. Just as there is little that can be done to stop seasonal flu, there is very little that could be done to stop such an airborne plague once it begins. Naturally evolved pathogens always leave a certain percentage of survivors but an engineered virus does not follow that rule. We are led to believe there is no defense, but we are being decieved and there is nothing further from the truth.

Spaceships can intercept impact threats and deflect them with nuclear devices. Spaceships can carry the people and equipment to construct permanent self-sustaining colonies in the outer solar system that will survive any plague or extinction level event on earth. The vital importance of building such craft is obvious. However,  Beyond Earth Orbit Human Space Flight (BEO-HSF) cannot be accomplished with a few expendable rockets. While complex weapons systems are easy money for industry because they do not have to work as advertised, Spaceships are hard money because they must work. Human beings must adjust their worldview concerning what is expensive and what is worth the expense. To understand the difficulty in building one, we must first define what a Spaceship actually is.

The entertainment and documentary film industry has conditioned the public to think of any craft that carries human beings beyond the atmosphere as a spaceship. A more precise definition is a vehicle designed to carry human beings outside low earth orbit (LEO) while providing artificial gravity and radiation protection equal to earth. In addition, a ship makes crossings and changes course so a true ship of space would necessarily be able to travel to other bodies in the solar system. Travel to the moon does not qualify as a true crossing to another body due to the short distance compared to other destinations. Such a quick trip can be made without the artificial gravity and radiation shielding required for interplanetary flight. Another feature of lunar travel is the ability of chemical propulsion systems to accomplish these missions. Due to the mass of radiation and gravity solutions, a Spaceship designed for deep space has no propulsion option except nuclear energy. While travel in the inner solar system may use solar power for life support and other systems, nuclear propulsion is still required. Due to the lack of inner system destinations, nuclear power, as well as nuclear propulsion, must be included in defining the true Spaceship.

At this point in history the technology exists for only one form of nuclear propulsion; nuclear pulse (bomb propulsion). This fact is generally unknown to the public and is given little serious consideration in the popular press.  Nuclear explosions pushing a ship through space does stretch the imagination, but no more than the idea of heavier than air flight did in the 19th century, even into the first years of the 20th. The difficulty in nuclear propulsion is not the engineering. The hundreds of billions of dollars of classified weapons research would reveal exactly how to build such a system. It is not how, it is how to build and operate the system well away from the earth. Nuclear materials are an environmental hazard without equal. For this reason transporting and assembling the fuel and components of any nuclear power and propulsion system is the first obstacle. The nuclear environmental hazard is overcome by virtue of the previously mentioned body that can be reached using just chemical propulsion; the moon.

As with the Apollo missions of the last century, the moon can be reached on a direct trajectory with a Heavy Lift Vehicle. Such a vehicle, using human rated components,  an escape tower, and specially packaged fissionables able to survive a launch failure or reentry, is the only practical method. While a worst case nuclear accident in earth orbit is unacceptable, the potential risk of contamination in lunar orbit is acceptable. Thus, the first problem in building a Spaceship is solved. Nuclear power components and the fuel for nuclear propulsion can be transported by HLV to the moon for assembly and preflight testing. The heaviest parts of the Spaceship are the massive pusher plate the nuclear pulse reacts against and the crew’ s massive radiation shield. The Earth Departure Stages (EDS) that boost the moon bound payloads out of earth orbit to their destinations, can be converted into the double hull of the Spaceship crew section that holds the liquid shielding, and also the structural members of the tower assembly used to absorb the shock of the pulse bomb detonations. The moon facilitates one of the two high mass necessities and can eventually supply the other.The first massive component, the cosmic radiation shield, can be supplied immediately in the form of water derived from lunar ice deposits to fill a double hull crew section. Until they are locally fabricated, the Spaceship pusher plates, or “pushers”, will have to come from earth by HLV in thin sections one at a time and stacked to form each ship’s heavy pusher.

The HLV at launch with a wide thin disc mounted at the nose and with side mounted SRB’s will be vaguely familiar to many science fiction fans. There is some resemblance to the starship Enterprise.  How many such discs will have to be launched and later stacked to build an all up pusher remains to be seen. Eventually monolithic pushers can be manufactured from lunar materials but until that time the pushers will have to come from earth in slices with multiple HLV missions. Considering the mass and energy involved, the schemes proposing human space flight by way of smaller cheaper rockets and “gas stations is space” are laughable. There is no cheap; space flight is inherently expensive.

A shock absorbing tower structure mounting a massively shielded crew section coupled to a nuclear reactor and bomb storage section, a massive pusher, and a tether system to generate artificial gravity complete the Spaceship. Using the hundreds of tons of water making up the radiation shield for growing bio-engineered organisms can sustain a closed loop life support system with an endurance of several years. A bomb propelled ship can attain velocities far above those possible with chemical propulsion and enable expeditions to the moons of the outer planets. The slug of matter that is superheated by the bomb and converted into the plasma that actually pushes the Spaceship can be obtained in situ from those distant moons in the outer system. By carrying a percentage of bombs without the mass of plasma slugs, speed and range is extended. Spaceships can transport thorium reactors, with fuel derived from lunar thorium ore, to these distant moons, establishing permanent colonies. Over 100 bodies in the outer system are large enough to anchor colonies.

During powered flight, when the reactor is shut down and both sections of the ship are joined, a tower structure would be used to decellerate the composite section during bomb pulses. Projecting far ahead of the pusher at the end of the tower, the composite ship section at the front would stroke backward like a descending elevator  toward the plate. This system would lower the acceleration  forces on the crew and equipment to the level of an aircraft carrier jet catapult launch. When coasting, the Spaceship would spit in half and reel out the engineering section and crew section opposite each other on long tethers to generate artificial gravity by spinning both sections around the pusher as the axis. The reactor can then be run without the need for very heavy shielding due to the several thousand feet of separation from the crew section. When the tethers are deployed for cruising, one half of the tower would fold against the pusher and reel out the tether with the crew section, and the other half of the tower would do the same in the opposite direction with the nuclear section of the ship.  Seperate tethers payed out from the split tower can be adjusted in length to balance the two spinning masses. During coast the crew would look out through viewports separated by14 feet of water and view a slowly rotating star field. The minimum Spaceship design uses at least 400 tons of water to protect the crew from the heavy nuclei component of Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR).

Science fiction has instilled in the public the idea that Spaceships and large scale space exploration is centuries away. In fact, we are perfectly capable of colonizing the solar system with present technology and are close to going much, much farther. With a single advance in medical technology– the ability to freeze human beings and then successfully revive them, we would be capable of centuries long travel to the stars. Such a cryopreservation procedure violates no laws of physics and is already used on a smaller scale with sperm and ovum. With this in mind another existential threat to humanity must be appreciated that requires another stretch of the imagination. Physicist Stephen Hawking has warned of a possible threat from alien civilizations. Indeed, if we lack only a single technological advance to be capable of star flight, alien civilizations could have already achieved this and embarked on missions of colonization to other stars. The danger is that our world was selected for alien colonization many centuries ago. Unlike the dramatic combat found in science fiction novels and movies, the most likely attack and invasion would take the form of comets steered toward earth as a method of sterilization. Just as we are capable of diverting impact threats away from earth, this capability also bestows the ability to weaponize comets and asteroids. A series of such attacks would destroy most life on our world. An advance alien force would probably sanitize the earth of indigenious life and then plant invasive micro organisms from their native ecosystem. When the alien colonists arrive centuries in the future and are revived, they would find a world already adapted to their biology and ready for introduction of flora, fauna, and settlers. This conversion process may be common in our galaxy. The millions of planets now confirmed to exist only increase the likelihood.

In summary, the Spaceship is basically a tower mounted on a disc. The crew and engineering section descend inside this tower like an elevater as a shock absorbing feature– which is necessary with a bomb propelled design. Riding in one would be like an aircraft carrier jet catapult launch. Over and over. The artificial gravity system deploys by splitting the tower and separating the crew and engineering section with the disc in the center and two tethers radiating outward– like the face of a clock with strings going out from the 9 and 3 oclock.

From discussing building the first Spaceships and off-world base on the moon, to the subject of preparing for an alien invasion seems a fantastical and inappropriate leap. It is no more incredible than the other unbelievable features of the universe.

Dec 9, 2011

Plowshare in Space

Posted by in categories: asteroid/comet impacts, counterterrorism, defense, engineering, existential risks, habitats, military, nuclear

For those not familiar with project plowshare, it was an atoms for peace initiative that tried to use nuclear devices for large scale excavation. Plowshare was a gross mistake on earth– but makes sense for the moon and other bodies. Drill a hole, put an H-bomb at the bottom, seal it up and light it off. And suddenly there is a big cave. Dandridge Cole wrote about this in his book “Beyond Tomorrow” in 1965. I read, or rather looked at the pictures in this wonderful book when I was in elementary school.

All the plans for building off world bases stumble over the difficulty of constructing habitats. Anything on the surface will be hit by cosmic radiation. Covering surface habitats with twenty feet of regolith is not easy with the limited equipment that can be soft landed off-world. It would not be easy on earth. The H-bomb is a variation of that theme of enough high explosive solving any problem. It worked for the Panama Canal.

Of course after detonation the underground construction would have to wait a couple months for the rubble to cool off and then use robots to excavate the radioactive debri.  H-bombs are actually fairly clean compared to large atom bombs and can be designed to be even cleaner. Well, as clean as a nuclear weapon can be. The directional type of bombs intended for Project Orion or the bunker buster designs the Orion bombs originated from would create the maximum amount of space.

Fill this spherical chamber partially with water, use a concentrating mirror to shine a beam down the shaft (and energy storage for the 14 day night) and we have a habitat for however many people a closed cycle ecosystem can support. It should be understood that bio-dome type systems would not be ideal. Using electricity (alot of it) to run plasma reformers can break down waste products, and breathing oxygen can be electrolyzed from water.
A large electrical supply can do wonders for extending resources to the maximum extent possible.

Solar power satellites could possibly relay solar energy to solar arrays on the surface during the lunar night– or nuclear reactors could be used.

Microwave gyrotrons, developed for fusion reactor research, are presently being experimented with for beam propulsion by NASA. While fusion will never work anywhere except in a star– or a bomb– beam propulsion would work quite well in the vacuum of space. Such a system could eventually be used to soft land payloads using very little fuel– or to launch ships to the outer solar system. Since one of the main products of lunar industry would eventually be thorium for spaceships and colonies in the outer system, maybe starting off with nuclear power would be best.

Transporting nuclear materials to the moon is best done with a human rated HLV, with an escape tower and material packaged to survive a launch failure or reentry, on a straight shot to the moon. That is the safest way to do it.

So I would guess, a drilling rig (get Bruce Willis!) to dig the shaft, an H-bomb,  a vehicle to process water from ice, and a power system would be the minimum. And as much electricity as can be generated from whatever source.

How many 20 or 30 ton soft landed HLV payloads would that take? Could it be done robotically or would humans make all the difference?

These are questions that can be answered– there are no showstoppers. One thing is for sure– inferior lift vehicles depending on cryo depots will fail miserably. The resources to build such a base will not come from entrepreneurs looking for big profits running orbital bordellos. An international effort to provide impact defense and a separate population in case of an extinction level event on earth would be the genesis of such a project.

Interplanetary travel will require nuclear propulsion and such arrangements will not be made in earth orbit. The moon is the key to defending the earth from the impact threat and establishing a separate population. As a source of raw materials, water for radiation shielding, solar energy, and underground manufacturing spaces, there is no place else within a few days travel from earth.

The moon is the place to safeguard earth and to launch colonists to the outer solar system. Low Earth Orbit is a dead end. Given a choice of spending treasure on establishing more space stations going in endless circles or accomplishing something worthwhile like desert solar energy farms, I would choose solar energy.

There is a more important mission.  A mission of the highest priority for the military, for NASA, for international concerns. The critical enabler is a moon base. There is no “Flexible Path.” The only path is narrow and will require vast resources. There is no cheap.

Dec 4, 2011

Space Travel Talking Points

Posted by in categories: asteroid/comet impacts, counterterrorism, defense, existential risks, military, nuclear, space

1. We must go out there.
There is a reason to go into space. The human race is threatened with extinction by way of an asteroid or comet impact, or by release of a 100 percent lethal engineered organism. Unfortunately Hollywood has made this reality a great fiction. The danger is real, not science fiction. The greatest threat of all is complacency. On the scale of the universe there is little difference between failing to prepare for an earthquake or hurricane, and failing to prepare for an impact or plague. The universe is unconcerned whether a city is destroyed, or a world. Keeping the human race from going the way of the great dragons is off the scale serious for humanity. It is the moral high ground from which to call upon public funds without reservation. Humankind must build spaceships and off-world colonies now. In the event of an impending impact or outbreak, it will be far too late.

2. It is all about politics.
If complacency brings the end of the world, much of the blame will go to politicians. The U.S. space program has throughout it’s history been an underfunded political football without direction or a proper mission. NASA has been called a jobs program and constantly denounced for wasting money. The truth is not so black and white. Pledging to provide jobs while reducing spending has little to do with space travel protecting the planet. The space shuttle was actually a very powerful system but most of the lift was wasted on the reusable winged orbiter. Designed to be all things for the price of one was doomed to fail. In trying to save money the shuttle was ultimately a costly failure. There is no cheap; space flight is inherently expensive.

3. Space travel is worth the money.
Building spaceships to protect Earth from impacts and to establish off-world colonies as insurance against a no survivor epidemic is worth every penny. The money spent by the Department of Defense (DOD) for cold war weapons and counter-insurgency campaigning is mind boggling. Aerospace companies are addicted to the easy money that weapons programs represent. Unlike many billion dollar weapons, spaceships are hard money because they actually have to work. A small percentage of DOD funding redirected toward impact defense would accomplish a critical mission. A random impact could happen tomorrow and there would be no one left to marvel at the improbable spike in that comforting probability curve. The public must demand protection.

4. Going nowhere.
To travel we must go somewhere. Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is NOT space travel. It is not space flight or space exploration anymore. It is endless circles at very high altitude. After decades of space station experience, it is now understood that LEO is a dead end. Space stations are not capable of powered flight. It is not spaceflight.There is nothing to explore. It is not space exploration. The only course is to leave Earth behind and fly directly Beyond Earth Orbit (BEO). A spaceship is always the best space station.

5. Going somewhere.
The first stop for the space traveler is the Moon. The Moon comes first because of an unavoidable sequence of requirements. While chemical propulsion is just sufficient to reach the Moon, nuclear energy is required to travel anywhere else in the solar system. Active nuclear reactors and nuclear fuel will not be allowed near the earth. Packaged fissionable material can be transported to the moon on a direct trajectory from earth only using heavy lift rockets. The moon also has water for radiation shielding and is where any deep space travel must begin.

6. Space can kill you.
Solar storms periodically flood space outside LEO with deadly radiation. In addition there is a constant extremely powerful form of cosmic radiation that sprays more radiation into a spacecraft when this “heavy nuclei” hits metal. For this reason, the partial shielding used to stop solar storm radiation greatly increases radiation exposure from heavy nuclei. The only solution is a massive shield that can stop both forms of radiation. The mass and distance of such a shield equates to 14 feet of water and a minimum of 400 tons. Like nuclear power and propulsion, space radiation is a subject that is avoided when proposing new spacecraft. It is necessary to move beyond denial and accept the cost.

7. Space is unhealthy.
While floating in zero gravity looks like great fun, it is impossible to stay healthy. Months of living in zero gravity causes muscles to weaken and a permanent loss of a certain percentage of bone mass and marrow. Particles of every kind, including human waste and germs, are difficult to filter out of the air and are inhaled. The blood pools in the head causing constant congestion and discomfort. Combined with radiation exposure, immune system suppression, and mutated pathogens,“zero G” debilitation is a hazard second only to space radiation. Artificial gravity and a massive radiation shield is the solution.

8. Spaceships are heavy.
A true ship of space capable of traveling to other planets in the solar system must be big. Since solar energy is not available in the outer system, nuclear reactors are required. Because of zero G debilitation, artificial gravity must be provided by splitting a ship in half and reeling out the two sections on a cable (tether) and then spinning them. Long voyages to the planets are only possible with artificial gravity and massive shielding. Not only electricity from reactors, but nuclear propulsion is absolutely required. Sending crews into deep space for years at a time based on how much radiation exposure and zero G debilitation they can survive will fail. Providing the basic human requirements of Earth radiation and Earth gravity will succeed.

9. Big rockets are the only way.
There is no substitute for a heavy lift vehicle with hydrogen fueled upper stages. Liquid hydrogen is the most powerful rocket propellant and is very difficult to store and handle. Advertisements showing “gas stations in space” are too good to be true. Cryogenic transfer in space to multiple small spacecraft has never been done for good reason. Private concerns endlessly promote these depots that will not work as advertised. Heavy Lift Vehicles (HLV’s) launched from earth are guaranteed to succeed just as they have over one hundred times in the form of the space shuttle. Currently, the proposed “SLS” is the only way to transport nuclear materials for spaceship power and propulsion systems directly to the moon. Schemes using smaller inferior lift vehicles are only capable of reaching LEO– and that is a dead end.

10. Private Space is deceiving the public.
The “Flexible Path” which hands over Human Space Flight (HSF) to privately operated companies has no chance of providing spaceships or off-world colonies to safeguard the human race. The main focus is on space tourism; joy rides to space stations for the ultra-wealthy subsidized with tax dollars. Private space promises yet has none of the resources necessary for actual space travel. Congress has mandated the Space Launch System (SLS) as a HLV designed for BEO-HSF. However, the NASA budget only allows for very slow development of the SLS and strict limitations on future missions. Nuclear powered and propelled spaceships launched from the moon with massive radiation shielding and artificial gravity will only become reality by raising the spaceflight budget ceiling. The DOD has the responsibility and duty to fund impact defense and off-world colonization.

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